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NFL Expert Picks: Opinions Divided for Vikings at Packers

Aaron Jones, Sr., has played against every NFL team in his eight-year career except one.

The Vikings running back will get the chance to face that opponent on Sunday when Minnesota (3-0) travels to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers (2-1), a place and team that Jones called home for his first seven seasons in the league.

Jones – who currently possesses the third-most career rushing yards (5,940) and the fourth-most carries (1,177) and rushing touchdowns (45) in Green Bay history – found success against Minnesota during his time as a Packer. In 11 games against the Vikings, Jones recorded the most carries (149), rushing yards (847), yards per attempt (5.68, min. 64 attempts) and receptions (29) of his career against one opponent. He also added five rushing touchdowns, the third-best mark against one team.

Now, he'll look to replicate that success playing for the Purple and continue his solid start to 2024.

Jones ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards (228) and is tied for 16th in carries (42) through the first three games of the season. As a result, Minnesota is 13th in the league in rushing yards per game (125.0) and 10th in rushing yards per play (4.81), compared to 31st (66.3) and 19th (4.0) at this time a year ago.

When it comes to team play, both sides of the ball for Minnesota and Green Bay have been superb in certain categories.

Offensively, the Vikings are currently sixth in the NFL in total yards per play (5.99) and passing yards per play (7.87), as well as third in third-down efficiency (45.71 percent) and scoring (28.3 points per game).

The Packers offense ranks fifth in the league in total yards per game (391.7), second in total yards per play (6.39), fourth in passing yards per play (8.28) and are in the top two in rushing (first in yards per game with 204.0 and second in yards per carry with 5.51). Green Bay is also tied for seventh in scoring at 25 points per game.

Minnesota's defense has smothered and confused opposing quarterbacks so far this season, with the Vikings ranking in the top 10 in the NFL in nearly every statistical category. Minnesota leads the league in sacks (16) and passes defensed (20) and is tied for second and third in interceptions (five) and takeaways (six), respectively. The Vikings are also second in scoring defense (10.0 per game) and are tied for second in rushing yards allowed per game (71.3).

Green Bay's defense leads the league in interceptions (seven), takeaways (nine) and interception rate (6.9 percent). The Packers are also 12th in scoring defense (19.3 per game) and are tied for fifth in sacks (11) and tied for sixth in passes defensed (15).

Although this is the 128th Border Battle between the two teams, Sunday's game will be just the 10th all-time in series history played in Week 4. Minnesota is 7-2 in the previous nine matchups, with the Vikings claiming the first six against the Packers from 1964 to 1996 and the most recent meeting in 2009.

The Vikings were also 3-0 heading into a Week 4 game against Green Bay twice, earning a 30-21 victory in 1996 and a 30-23 victory on Monday Night Football in 2009, both coming in Minnesota.

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Packers 21, Vikings 17 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

This is one of the games of the week. The Vikings are 3-0 and riding high, while the Packers are 2-1 and have won two games with Malik Willis playing quarterback. That's because the defense has been outstanding. Same for the Vikings. That means this should be a low-scoring game. Packers take it.

View photos from Vikings practices at the TCO Performance Center as the team prepares for the Week 4 matchup with the Packers.

Vikings 24, Packers 23 – Staff, Bleacher Report

The undefeated Minnesota Vikings are slight underdogs in a division matchup with the Green Bay Packers. Oddsmakers likely baked in the possibility of Packers quarterback Jordan Love's return from an MCL sprain.

Last week, Love practiced with limitations from Wednesday through Friday, but he didn't suit up. [Green Bay] Head Coach Matt LaFleur told reporters that Love will be limited at practice to start this week.

Despite all the chatter around Love's status, the B/R crew took the Vikings because of Sam Darnold's performances three weeks into the campaign.

Darnold is on the Baker Mayfield path to reinventing himself after years as a journeyman quarterback.

[Bleacher Report editor Ian] Hanford also highlighted the Vikings balance on the defensive side of the ball as a big reason to take the road underdog.

"Both [Vikings Defensive Coordinator] Brian Flores and LaFleur have been masterful through three weeks," Hanford noted.

"Flores' Vikings defense has given up its share of passing yards, but it also has five interceptions (second-best in the NFL), 16 sacks (best in the league) and has allowed only 214 rushing yards in three weeks," Hanford said. "Meanwhile, LaFleur has navigated losing Jordan Love to injury by winning two games with Malik Willis – once by almost exclusively running the ball against the Colts and then letting Willis loose a bit in last week's win over the Titans.

"I believe in LaFleur, and Willis has been a great storyline in Love's absence, but I favor the Vikings here," Hanford added. "Sam Darnold looks to be in full command of the offense, and I like Flores' defense to throw the kitchen sink at the Packers offense to come away with a 3-point win."

Packers 28, Vikings 26 – Bill Bender, Sporting News

The Vikings have a chance to take command of the NFC North race. [Sam] Darnold and Justin Jefferson, who averages 19.5 yards per catch with three TDs, have been effective. The matchup between Jefferson and [Packers cornerback] Jaire Alexander will be fun as usual. Aaron Jones, who averages 5.2 yards per attempt, will be the key against his former team. [Packers quarterback Jordan] Love should return for this game, and the Packers need to generate a running game against a Vikings defense that allows 71.3 yards per game. These teams have split their series each of the past four years. Whose turn is it?

Packers 22, Vikings 17 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

Matt LaFleur is on fire with his offensive play-calling, run or pass, while the same can be said about Brian Flores' work with Minnesota's defense. Something needs to give a little, and we give the edge to the Lambeau hosts.

5 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

4 of 10 experts (1 of 11 total had not submitted) pick the Vikings, ESPN

5 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

4 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic

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