The Minnesota Vikings are off to Emerald City this week – better known as Seattle – with a wish they're hoping the "Wizard of Football" will grant: to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC Playoffs.
Similar to Dorothy and Toto in The Wizard of Oz, though, the Vikings yellow (and purple) brick road won't be an easy one, as Minnesota (12-2) most likely must win all of its remaining games to obtain the top seed in the NFC, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
The Vikings are tied with Chicago and New England for having the toughest remaining schedule over the final three weeks of the regular season, with Minnesota's opponents combining for a win percentage of .714. Add in their recent meeting with Chicago on Monday Night Football, and the Vikings quest for the No. 1 seed will feature encounters with Lions, Packers and Bears (oh my!), not to mention flying Seahawks. The Eagles and Lions are both 12-2, with Detroit currently having the tiebreakers.
Minnesota's next test will come on Sunday at Seattle (8-6), which is currently tied with the Los Angeles Rams atop the NFC West standings, but sit outside the playoff bubble due to the Rams 26-20 overtime victory over the Seahawks in Week 9. Seattle then went on a four-game win streak following that loss before falling to Green Bay 30-13 on Sunday Night Football last week, which sealed at least a postseason berth for Minnesota.
Look back at photos over the course of time featuring games between the Vikings and the Seahawks.
The Vikings, meanwhile, also followed a loss to the Rams with a win, and they haven't stopped since. Minnesota's current seven-game win streak is the second-longest active run in the league behind Philadelphia's tear of 10 straight, highlighted by Minnesota winning three consecutive road games for the first time in franchise history and three straight home games for the first time since 2009.
Minnesota is one of 12 teams this season with at least five victories on the road, but it is one of just four teams to have five or more road wins and one or fewer losses. The Lions are the only NFL team to not lose a road game so far this season (6-0), followed by the Chiefs and Eagles at 6-1 and the Vikings at 5-1.
The Vikings are 15-8 on the road in three seasons under Head Coach Kevin O'Connell, which is the fifth-best mark in the NFL since 2022. O'Connell has notched at least five road wins in each of his three seasons at the helm (5-4 in 2023 and 5-3 in 2022), which is tied with Dennis Green for the second-most in franchise history. The only other three head coaches in team history who had a season with at least five road wins were Norm Van Brocklin (one), Mike Zimmer (two) and the late Bud Grant (eight).
Despite Minnesota's recent success away from U.S. Bank Stadium, the Vikings have struggled in Seattle. In 11 meetings in the Emerald City, Minnesota has only won twice – a 31-13 victory in 2006 and a 24-21 win in 1990. The Seahawks have claimed the past five matchups against Minnesota on their home turf, most recently a 27-26 victory in 2020.
Although Minnesota has had tough luck in Seattle, Lumen Field hasn't been a friendly environment for the Seahawks lately, either.
Seattle's fanbase – known as the "12s" – has had a rich history of using their voices to provide a home-field advantage. Their eardrum-splitting volume has not only set two Guinness World Records (136.6 decibels in 2013 and 137.6 in 2014, later topped by Kansas City at 142.2 in 2014), but has also produced seismic activity equivalent to a 2.0-magnitude earthquake (during Marshawn Lynch's iconic "Beast Quake" run against the Saints in January of 2011). That was recently topped at the stadium with a 2.3-magnitude measured during Taylor Swift's "Eras" tour concert in 2023).
The loud noises have typically played in Seattle's favor, as the Seahawks have posted a home record of 106-43 between the opening of Lumen Field in 2002 and 2020. Since 2021, however, the Seahawks are 16-17 at home, including a 3-5 mark this year, their worst since the 2021 season.
Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:
Vikings 30, Seahawks 24 (if Geno Smith plays); Vikings 30, Seahawks 13 (if Geno Smith doesn't play) – John Breech, CBS Sports
I'm not sure what's on [Seattle Head Coach] Mike Macdonald's Christmas list, but I'm guessing that he'd really like Santa to deliver him a healthy knee for Geno Smith, because if he's banged up, the Seahawks have no chance of winning the NFC West. I don't think Santa delivers healthy knees, because that would be weird, but maybe he'll make an exception in this case, because the Seahawks are in desperation mode.
Of course, even if Smith can play on Sunday, that might not matter, because he doesn't play defense and that's Seattle's biggest issue right now. The Seahawks have had some serious trouble stopping the run and if you watched them play on Sunday night in Week 15, you got a glimpse of how bad things are. The Packers basically just gave the ball to Josh Jacobs on their first two drives, and that almost instantly led to two touchdowns.
I'm guessing the Vikings will do something similar, so if Aaron Jones, Sr., is on your fantasy team, you can go ahead and start celebrating your fantasy championship now, because you're going to win this week (Unless the other team has Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley, then you're just cooked).
Even if Geno is banged up, there's one thing that should have the Seahawks feeling good about this game, and it's the fact that the Vikings have struggled in outdoor games since the calendar hit November. Let's take a look at their last three:
Week 10: at Jacksonville. Vikings barely win 12-7 in a game where Sam Darnold throws three interceptions.
Week 11: at Tennessee. Vikings win 23-13 against a bad Titans team.
Week 12: at Chicago. Vikings get taken to overtime in a 30-27 win over the Bears.
That's three wins by an average of six points. I think we know what that means: Vikings by six.
Vikings 30, Seahawks 21 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
The Seahawks might not have quarterback Geno Smith in this game. If he does play, he will be limited. That matters against a good, aggressive Vikings defense. Sam Darnold will get back on track after a so-so showing last week as Minnesota keeps pushing to the top seed.
Vikings 27, Seahawks 21 – Staff, Bleacher Report
Even though the Seattle Seahawks are optimistic about quarterback Geno Smith's status for this game, keep an eye on their injury report for updates. If Sam Howell gets the nod, this line could move by another point or reach -5.5.
In 20 games (18 starts), Howell has more interceptions (23) than touchdown passes (22), and he had an abysmal showing as a fill-in last week, completing five out of 14 passes for 24 yards and an interception.
The Seahawks defense can keep the score close, but [Bleacher Report NFL analyst Kristopher] Knox can see the Minnesota Vikings eventually finding a breakthrough, even if they have a less-than-stellar performance.
"Minnesota played a fairly sloppy game against the Chicago Bears on Monday – at least, until it remembered that it could use Aaron Jones in the running game – and still won by three scores," Knox said. "I don't expect things to be quite as lopsided against the Seahawks in Seattle, but I do expect the Vikings to win fairly convincingly.
"With Kenneth Walker III out of the lineup in Week 15, Seattle looked like a B-level team against the Packers," Knox added. "The Vikings can win this, even if they don't bring their A-game."
Vikings 31, Seahawks 19 – Bill Bender, Sporting News
Geno Smith (knee) left the Week 15 loss to the Packers, and if he cannot go, then Sam Howell will face the Vikings, one of eight NFL teams with 40-plus sacks. Minnesota is 3-1 when favored by four points or more, and Sam Darnold continues to be the hot hand.
Vikings 24, Seahawks 20 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News
The Vikings have won seven consecutive games after ripping the Bears at home on Monday night. They found a power running game at the right time again with Aaron Jones – just in time to keep the Seahawks reeling up front. Sam Darnold will better protect the ball, while likely fill-in counterpart Sam Howell will have flashbacks to the heavy pressure he saw while with the Commanders.
5 of 6 experts picks the Vikings, The MMQB
8 of 11 experts pick the Vikings, ESPN
6 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report
7 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic