What makes a great magic show?
For some, it's the storytelling aspect, as they watch magicians weave compelling narratives filled with suspense, humor and mystery while performing their act. Others might focus on the trick itself, attempting to dissect every technical element to gain a better understanding of its execution.
This Sunday's regular-season finale between the Vikings (14-2) and Lions (14-2) offers a little bit of everything, from great showmen on both sides to high stakes and mind-boggling deception and trickery, all on the big stage of Sunday Night Football.
The intrigue is palpable: The winner receives the NFC North division title, the No. 1 seed in the NFC Playoffs, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs; The loser will get the No. 5 seed and be forced to take its show on the road in Wild Card Weekend.
Both Minnesota's and Detroit's acts are similar in some ways, but incredibly distinct and original in other areas. Let's take a peek behind the curtain at what makes each of them great.
Look back at photos over the course of time featuring games between the Vikings and the Lions.
Offensively, the Lions have a deep bag of tricks to produce points. Detroit Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson has shown his creativity on multiple occasions this season, most recently:
A hook-and-lateral play between Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams against the 49ers on Monday Night Football last week that resulted in a 41-yard touchdown.
A fake end-around to All-Pro tackle Penei Sewell on Detroit's next possession against San Francisco after the touchdown listed above.
A fake fall by Goff on a handoff to David Montgomery (who also fell down by design) — the "Stumblebum" — before Goff delivered a 21-yard touchdown pass to tight end Sam LaPorta against the Bears in Week 16.
In addition to their trick plays, the Lions offense has been equally as aggressive on fourth downs, with Detroit ranking fifth in the NFL in fourth-down efficiency (69%). Since Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell took over in 2021, Detroit has successfully converted 82 of its 147 fourth downs (55.8%), each the most in the league during that span.
The Lions cast of showmen on offense features four skill players with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards this season: running back Jahmyr Gibbs leads Detroit with 1,759, followed by St. Brown (1,192), Montgomery (1,116) and Williams (1,028). The Lions are just the fifth team since 1995 to have four players reach 1,000 scrimmage yards apiece.
When it comes to technical proficiency, Goff is among the NFL's best. The Lions QB ranks second in yards (4,398), third in completion percentage (71.7%) and fourth in touchdowns (36), with both his TDs and completion percentage being career highs. He needs 290 passing yards Sunday to set a career best in that category.
It's all helped Detroit lead the NFL in scoring at 33.1 points per game, including an astonishing 37.5 average since Week 14. The Lions have also become the first team with five games in a season of scoring 40 or more points and not committing a single turnover.
For the Vikings offense, Minnesota also features a variety of showmen.
Running back Aaron Jones, Sr., has totaled 1,471 scrimmage yards and seven total touchdowns and became the 69th player all-time to reach 7,000 career rushing yards last week. Justin Jefferson leads the pass catchers with 100 receptions, 10 touchdowns and 1,479 receiving yards, marking the fourth time in five seasons he's reached at least 1,400 yards in a season. Jefferson needs just 21 yards Sunday to reach 1,500 for the season for the third time in his five-year career.
Jordan Addison has racked up 875 yards (37 shy of being a career best) on just 62 receptions and nine touchdowns (two short of also being a career high). Former Lion T.J. Hockenson (446 receiving yards) and Jalen Nailor (361 yards and six touchdowns) help round things out for QB Sam Darnold, who's putting together a career year in his own right in his first season with Minnesota.
Darnold has been able to go toe-for-toe with the NFL's best passers this season, as he ranks fourth in yards (4,153), ninth in completion percentage (68.1%) and fifth in TDs (35) – all career highs. Against Green Bay last week, Darnold threw for a career-best 377 yards and passed the team record set by Brett Favre in 2009 (33) for the most touchdown passes by a player in his first season as a Viking.
It's the Vikings defense, however, that has used deception and disguise as its calling card this season under Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings lead the NFL in total blitzes (257), blitz percentage (38%), interceptions (22) and are tied for first in takeaways (31) and tied for third in sacks (47). Minnesota is also third in quarterback hurries (62) and quarterback knockdowns (65) and ranks second in total pressures (174). When it comes to late-down situations, the Vikings are among the league's best, ranking fourth in third downs (holding opponents to 35.3%) and first in fourth-down defense (35.5%).
Minnesota's defense is led by its strong pass rushing duo consisting of Andrew Van Ginkel (11.5 sacks; tied-for-4th in NFL) and Jonathan Greenard (11.0 sacks, T-8th), and a stifling secondary that features Byron Murphy, Jr., (six interceptions, T-3rd in NFL; 14 passes defensed, T-7th), Camryn Bynum (three INTs, T-18th; 10 PD, T-26th), Harrison Smith, Joshua Metellus and Stephon Gilmore (five combined INTs; 22 combined passes defensed).
The Lions have been ravaged by injuries, with multiple defensive starters on Injured Reserve. Despite its bad luck with injuries on that side of the ball, Detroit still bolsters the NFL's best third-down defense (holding opponents to just 33.1%) and is tied for the second-best defense on fourth downs (46.2%).
Detroit also ranks third in total blitzes (213), blitz percentage (33.3%), fifth in pressures (164) and lead the NFL in hurries (68), but are near the bottom in sacks (35, fifth fewest). The Lions are tied for eighth in takeaways (24) but are tied for third in interceptions (16), with Kerby Joseph leading the league with nine.
Sunday's game will be the ninth time Minnesota and Detroit have faced each other to close the regular season. The Vikings are 5-3 in the previous eight finales, with the first win coming in 1977 when Minnesota defeated Detroit 30-21 on the road during the season's final weekend to capture the NFC Central crown.
Minnesota's most recent victory against the Lions to close the regular season came in 2020 in a 37-35 victory in Detroit. The Lions most recent win in the category came last season in a 30-20 victory, also in Detroit.
So whatever you're most intrigued by ahead of Sunday's game, one thing's for sure: It has the makings for a memorable grand finale to the NFL regular season.
Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:
Lions 30, Vikings 23 – John Breech, CBS Sports
This will be the final game of the 2024 regular season and the NFL is definitely saving its best for last. This game will mark the first time in 31 years that the top seed in a conference will be decided in the final week of the season in a winner-take-all battle. This will also mark the first time in NFL history that two teams with 13 wins or more will face off in a regular-season game.
There will be a lot on the line in this game with the winner taking home the NFC North title and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC while the loser will be stuck getting the fifth seed in the NFC. That means the winner will get a bye in the opening round of the playoffs while the loser will be forced to hit the road for the wild-card round.
What's the difference between getting a one-seed and a five-seed? Glad you asked. There was no fifth-seed in the playoffs until 1978 and since then, they've almost never made it to the Super Bowl.
Basically, if you lose this game, you don't just lose this game, your chances of getting to the Super Bowl also take a major hit, which is not what you want when you're a team that's never won the Super Bowl before (In related news, the Vikings and Lions have never won the Super Bowl before).
I feel like this is going to come down to who plays better out of Jared Goff and Sam Darnold. That might seem obvious, but all you have to do is look at each's team passing defense to realize why the QB battle will probably decide the game. The Lions are surrendering 250.4 yards per game through the air, which is the second-worst number in the NFL. But Vikings fans, don't laugh, because your team isn't much better: The Vikings have given up an average of 243.6 yards per game, which is the fifth-worst in the NFL.
So you have the two of the worst passing defenses, and they'll be going up against two quarterbacks who both rank in the top-five for passing yards per game this year (Goff ranks second overall with 274.9 yards per game while Darnold ranks fifth overall with 259.6 yards per game).
These two quarterbacks went a combined 7-17-1 in 2020, and somehow, just four years later, they're going to be duking it out for the top seed in the NFC.
Darnold has never played in a game of this magnitude, so I'm going to take they guy who's won multiple big games in his career, and that's Goff.
Lions 34, Vikings 33 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
This is the game of the week, the winner getting the top seed in the NFC. Both teams can score – a lot. The difference is the Vikings have a little better defense. But the home field will be at play here and be the difference. I think the Vikings keep it close, but the Lions will win it.
Lions 37, Vikings 34 – Staff, Bleacher Report
This week's Sunday Night Football matchup will feature two 14-win teams competing for the NFC North division title and the No. 1 seed.
In Week 7, the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings 31-29. The Vikings lost to the Los Angeles Rams in the following week, and they haven't dropped a game since then, winning nine consecutive contests.
Last Monday, the Lions beat the San Francisco 49ers to go undefeated on the road this season, but they gave up 34 points. Rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall and tight end George Kittle racked up 112-plus receiving yards against Detroit's 31st-ranked pass defense. All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson and two-time Pro Bowler (and former Lions tight end) T.J. Hockenson could produce similar or gaudier receiving numbers.
Also, bettors should remember that both Lions losses were at home, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and [Buffalo Bills].
However, [Bleacher Report editor Ian] Hanford believes the Lions will sweep their season series with the Vikings.
"This is a tough one," Hanford said. "These teams have been on a mission all season, and I believe in both sides. Sam Darnold and the Vikings have shocked most and are perhaps the most overlooked 14-2 team that I can remember, but this is the game Dan Campbell's team has prepared for all year.
"And there's a lot on the line as the winner will get the NFC's No. 1 seed and the loser falls to No. 5. Seeding isn't always critical, but CBS Sports' Doug Clawson noted the fifth seed has made only three Super Bowls since 1978," Hanford added. "Seeing as the Lions are still my NFC Super Bowl favorite, I'll side with them to lock up the top seed and put the odds of making the big game further in their favor. Jared Goff has been in these big moments before, and Ben Johnson's bag of tricks is deep. Lions by a field goal."
Lions 31, Vikings 27 – Bill Bender, Sporting News
Who gets home-field advantage in the NFC? This game should be a thriller, and the Vikings have mastered close games this season with Kevin O'Connell. Minnesota is 9-1 in one-score games this season, but the lone loss is to Detroit. The Lions are 6-1 in one-score games this season. Who knew Jared Goff and Sam Darnold would be must-see TV in the finale?
Lions 34, Vikings 31 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News
The Vikings have pushed the Lions to the limit like no one expected, but the play of Sam Darnold and Brian Flores' defense has them well positioned. The Lions, however, will be ready to smash at home one last time to win a high-scoring affair with the better closing running game.
3 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB
3 of 8 experts (3 of 11 total had not submitted) pick the Vikings, ESPN
3 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report
1 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic