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NFL Expert Picks: Opinions Divided for Vikings & Rams in Wild Card Round

On your mark… get set… GO!

After making it past the 17-game set of hurdles – better known as the regular season – 14 teams remain in the race for the NFL's most coveted prize – a championship. Twelve of those 14 teams will compete in the next event starting this weekend, including the Minnesota Vikings.

Despite earning the second-most victories (14) in a season in franchise history, this year's Vikings squad (14-3) will have a tougher starting playoff position than any other team in league history that's won 14 games in a season. Minnesota's loss to Detroit last week to close the regular season pushed the Vikings down to the No. 5 seed in the NFC Playoffs.

As a result, Minnesota will hit the road this weekend, opening the Wild Card Round on Monday against the Los Angeles Rams (10-7), who earned the No. 4 seed by claiming the NFC West division. Because of the ongoing wildfires in L.A., the NFL on Thursday night announced the game will be relocated to Arizona and played at State Farm Stadium.

Minnesota's lone loss of the season besides the two against Detroit came at the hands (or I guess hooves?) of the Rams in a 30-20 final at Los Angeles in Week 8. The Vikings then reeled off nine consecutive victories before falling to the Lions.

The Vikings have plenty of familiarity with playing the Lions and the Rams multiple times within a season throughout their history as a franchise.

This year marks the 16th time Minnesota played the Lions twice and the Rams once in the regular season. Only one other season (1967) had the Vikings post a winless record (0-2-1) in the three games. The other 14 instances occurred in 1968, 1970, 1972-74, 1979, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1992, 2017, 2018 and 2021. Minnesota also played Detroit twice and the Rams once in 1988, but the game against Los Angeles (a 28-17 victory) occurred in the postseason.

The Vikings have also played Detroit twice and the Rams twice (once in the playoffs) in the same season, but it's been more of a rarity, occurring just four other times in franchise history. They were:

1969: 4-0 (W 24-10 vs. Detroit; W 27-0 at Detroit (Thanksgiving); W 20-13 at L.A. Rams; W 23-20 vs. L.A. Rams in Western Conference Championship (first-ever Vikings playoff victory)

1976: 3-0-1 (T 10-10 (OT) vs. L.A. Rams; W 10-9 at Detroit; W 31-23 vs. Detroit; W 24-13 vs. L.A. Rams in NFC Championship Game)

1977: 3-1 (W 14-7 vs. Detroit; L 35-3 at L.A. Rams (MNF); W 30-21 at Detroit (Saturday night) to close regular season; W 14-7 at L.A. Rams in Divisional Round)

1978: 1-3 (L 34-17 vs. L.A. Rams; W 17-7 vs. Detroit; L 45-14 at Detroit (Saturday day); L 34-10 at L.A. Rams in Divisional Round)

Minnesota's first six seasons as a franchise also involved playing the Lions and Rams twice, all in the regular season. The Vikings went 1-3 in 1961, 1-2-1 in 1962, 2-2 in 1963, 1-2-1 in 1964, 3-1 in 1965 and 2-2 in 1966.

Additionally, when the Rams were based in St. Louis, Minnesota faced Detroit twice and the Rams once in the regular season nine times. The Vikings were largely successful in those games, racking up 22 wins and just five losses between 1998 and 2015. Minnesota also played the Lions twice in the regular season and St. Louis once in the playoffs, earning a season split with Detroit in 1999 before falling to the Rams 49-37 in the Divisional Round.

Throughout its 46-year history, Wild Card Weekend has been known to produce an upset or two; for the past seven consecutive seasons, there has been at least one lower-seeded team to defeat a higher-seeded opponent in the opening weekend of the playoffs.

When it comes to a No. 5 seed beating a No. 4 seed in the Wild Card Round, it's been quite common, as 29 of the previous 46 seasons have had either one or both No. 5 seeds advancing to the Divisional Round. Of the 35 total victories by a fifth-seeded team in the first weekend, 18 have occurred in the AFC Playoffs and 17 have happened in the NFC Playoffs.

This season marks the 10th time in team history the Vikings have started the playoffs as a Wild Card entrant (out of 32 total trips). The previous nine were in 1987, 1988, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2004, 2012 and 2019.

Look back on images from past games between the Vikings and the Rams.

In those nine playoff games as a Wild Card entrant, Minnesota holds a 6-3 record. Here's how they played out:

– 1987 (No. 5 seed): W 44-10 at New Orleans

– 1988 (No. 4 seed): W 28-17 vs. Los Angeles Rams

– 1993 (No. 5 seed): L 17-10 at New York Giants

– 1996 (No. 6 seed): L 40-15 at Dallas

– 1997 (No. 6 seed): W 23-22 at New York Giants

– 1999 (No. 4 seed): W 27-10 vs. Dallas

– 2004 (No. 6 seed): W 31-17 at Green Bay

– 2012 (No. 6 seed): L 24-10 at Green Bay

– 2019 (No. 6 seed): W 26-20 (OT) at New Orleans

Eleven Wild Card teams have gone on to play in the Super Bowl, with seven winning it all. Of those seven, only two have been the No. 5 seed: the 2007 New York Giants (they halted the Patriots chance at a perfect season with a 17-14 victory) and the 2020 Buccaneers (coincidentally also involving Tom Brady, as he beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs 31-9 in his first season in Tampa Bay).

In addition to those seven championship-winning Wild Card teams, four Wild Card entrants reached the Super Bowl but fell short: the 1975 Cowboys, the 1985 Patriots (who were a No. 5 seed), the 1992 Bills and the 1999 Titans. The Vikings are uniquely connected with three of those teams, all involving a piece of NFL history:

Minnesota, the reigning NFC champions, fell to Dallas in the waning seconds of its Divisional Round game on Dec. 28, 1975, on a 50-yard play between Roger Staubach and Drew Pearson (who clearly pushed off!). The play birthed the "Hail Mary" phrase, and the Cowboys became the first Wild Card team ever to reach the Super Bowl.

The 1992 Bills trailed the Houston Oilers 35-3 in the third quarter before QB (and later Colts and Panthers Head Coach between 2018-2023) Frank Reich orchestrated a miraculous Bills comeback, with Buffalo winning 41-38 in overtime. The 32-point comeback still stands as the largest in postseason history, but it was topped when the Vikings rallied from a 33-point deficit to defeat the Colts 39-36 in OT during the 2022 season for the largest comeback in NFL history.

The 1999 Titans finished second in the AFC Central division that season despite posting a 13-3 record (Jacksonville finished 14-2). For 25 years, Tennessee held the distinction of having the most wins of any Wild Card team in the Super Bowl era, until the Vikings broke it with their 14-win season this year.

Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:

Rams 28, Vikings 24 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports

The Vikings didn't play well in the Sunday night loss to the Lions that cost them a chance at the No. 1 seed. Now they face a Rams team that rested a lot of key players last week. Sam Darnold needs to respond after a poor showing last week. The problem is the Rams defensive front can get after him. Matthew Stafford will be challenged by the Brian Flores defense, but I think he will make enough plays to pull off the upset.

Rams 31, Vikings 30 – Staff, Bleacher Report

In Week 8, the Los Angeles Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings 30-20 at home. The referees missed a facemask infraction late in the game, but the Vikings needed a late touchdown drive to potentially tie up the score anyway.

The Rams pressured Sam Darnold in that contest, sacking him three times, and limited the Vikings explosive plays over the top. Los Angeles may have the blueprint to slow down Minnesota's ninth-ranked scoring offense.

However, [Bleacher Report NFL analyst Brent] Sobleski picked the Vikings to flip the script on the Rams in this Monday Night Football matchup.

"When the Vikings traveled to the Los Angeles Rams in October, [Rams Head Coach] Sean McVay and Company emerged victorious," Sobleski said. "Aside from the Detroit Lions, the Rams are the only team to have beaten Minnesota so far this season. An asterisk needs to be placed on that win, though.

"The game was on Thursday Night Football, four days after the Vikings faced the Lions. Meanwhile, the Rams hosted the Las Vegas Raiders the previous Sunday. Los Angeles caught Minnesota at exactly the right time," Sobleski added. "Many will bet that history can repeat itself after the Vikings lost to the Lions in Week 18, whereas the Rams got to rest their stars. But the Vikings, who were clearly the better squad throughout the season, now have extra time to prepare with the game being on Monday. Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell knows McVay as well as anyone in the game. It's difficult to envision the Vikings faltering the same way twice."

Rams 28, Vikings 27 – Bill Bender, Sporting News

Here is the "upset" of the week. The Rams are home underdogs against a Minnesota team coming off a brutal loss against the Lions. Los Angeles beat Minnesota 30-20 in Week 8. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combined for 12 catches for 157 yards and a TD in that game. Matthew Stafford had consistent home-road splits this season, and the Rams can win another close game here.

How will Sam Darnold respond after a brutal Week 18 performance against the Lions? This is his first playoff start, and it will be heavily scrutinized. The Rams were 3-3 as an underdog of four points or less this season, and we think they will generate just enough against the Vikings second-ranked run defense to spring the upset.

Vikings 20, Rams 17 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News

The Vikings lost to only two teams this season, the Lions (twice) and Rams. Before falling in Week 18 in Detroit, they lost back-to-back to Detroit and Los Angeles in Weeks 7 and 8. The Vikings just struggled playing all-out with Sam Darnold, while the Rams still looked good resting Matthew Stafford and other starters. That said, the Rams offense is a bigger issue than their defense in the second matchup, and this surprise low-scoring game will go to the savvier group in the rematch.

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2 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB

6 of 10 experts (1 had not submitted) pick the Vikings, ESPN

2 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report

3 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic

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