Each year, when the NFL schedule is officially released in May, coaches, players and fans begin pouring through their teams' matchups, dissecting every scenario imaginable.
"Who do we open/close the season with?" "How early is the bye week?" "Do we play any prime-time or holiday games?"
Some may circle a specific date to signify its importance to the team's season. Others might do the same, but with more of an anticipatory mindset – especially for coaches and players if the matchup involves going against a former team.
When the Vikings saw their 2024 schedule, one game may have stood out more than others: a Week 14 home matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. That game – which takes place at noon (CT) Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium – carries a lot of weight for many reasons.
For starters, it serves as a critical contest between two teams who are very much in the NFC playoff conversation as well as their respective division title races. Minnesota (10-2) currently holds the fifth seed and the first Wild Card spot, but only trails the NFC North-leading Lions (11-1) by a game while simultaneously being a game ahead of the Packers (9-3) in the standings. Coincidentally, the Lions and Packers will square off in Detroit on Thursday Night Football.
Meanwhile, the Falcons (6-6) are tied with Tampa Bay, but hold the fourth seed and the advantage in the NFC South standings after beating the Buccaneers twice in October. If the playoffs started today, Minnesota would travel to Atlanta in the Wild Card round.
Sunday's game also marks the return of Falcons QB Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, where he spent the past six seasons (2018-23). He won 50 games and made the Pro Bowl three times as a Viking, and his 171 passing touchdowns and 23,265 yards rank second and third in team history, respectively.
Another category where Cousins ranks high on the Vikings all-time leaderboard is his ability to conduct game-winning drives or fourth-quarter comebacks.
Throughout Minnesota's 64 seasons as a franchise, 25 quarterbacks have combined for 114 fourth-quarter comebacks, and 31 quarterbacks have combined for 156 game-winning drives in the regular season during their time with the Vikings. Cousins' 14 fourth-quarter comebacks and 16 game-winning drives in regular-season play each rank third in team history behind Pro Football Hall of Famer and Vikings Ring of Honor member Fran Tarkenton (19 of each) and Tommy Kramer (15 fourth-quarter comebacks; 19 game-winning drives).
Daunte Culpepper is the only other Vikings QB to record at least 10 fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season. Culpepper also had 15 game-winning drives in regular-season play for Minnesota, while Brad Johnson's 13 and Pro Football Hall of Famer Warren Moon's 10 game-winning drives in the regular season are the only other double-digit marks.
Cousins is also one of just six Vikings quarterbacks in franchise history to piece together a game-winning drive in the postseason, joining Tarkenton, Kramer, Joe Kapp, Randall Cunningham and Case Keenum.
During the 2022 season, Cousins had eight fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, tying Matthew Stafford (while with Detroit in 2016) for the most in a single season in NFL history. Sam Darnold currently has two fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives through 12 games with Minnesota.
The Vikings and Falcons have met 33 times in their history, including twice in the postseason, with Minnesota holding a 21-12 advantage in the all-time series. Minnesota has won five of the past six meetings, including the most recent matchup last season (a 31-28 victory in Atlanta in Week 9). The Vikings have also won three of the past five matchups at home against Atlanta dating back to the 2007 season, but the Falcons claimed the most recent game at U.S. Bank Stadium in a 40-23 win in 2020.
Let's see who the experts are picking to win the game:
Vikings 31, Falcons 24 – John Breech, CBS Sports
The Kirk Cousins revenge game is finally here, although I'm not sure we can technically call this the "Kirk Cousins revenge game" because there's a 50 percent chance that Kirk Cousins doesn't even believe in revenge. He's that nice.
For Cousins, it feels like this game is coming at the worst possible time: He's currently stuck in one of the worst ruts of his career. This is exactly when you don't want to be facing your old team. This is like gaining 80 pounds and then running into your ex at Christmas.
So how bad is Cousins' rut?
On Nov. 4, the Falcons were sitting at 6-3 and it looked like they were in total control of the NFC South, but since then, they've totally fallen apart and it's mostly because of Cousins. Since Week 10, the Falcons have gone 0-3 and, in that span, Cousins has thrown six interceptions and fumbled the ball four times. Four of those six interceptions came in a 17-13 loss to the Chargers in Week 13. If Cousins only throws three interceptions, the Falcons probably win.
…
The Falcons are 2-6 this year when Cousins throws at least one interception in a game and 4-0 when he doesn't. I think what I'm trying to say here is that this game is going to come down to how well Cousins plays and based on the past three weeks, I don't have high hopes for the Falcons.
With Cousins struggling, the easiest way to take some pressure off him would be for the Falcons to run the ball, but this is the one week where that strategy probably isn't going to work. The Vikings are surrendering just 81.3 yards per game on the ground, which makes them the best defense in the NFL against the run.
The Vikings have struggled to stop the pass, but with the way Cousins is playing, I'm not sure he's going to be able to take advantage of that. If Kohl's offers Cousins $10,000 in Kohl's cash for every touchdown he throws this week, then the Falcons might be able to pull off the upset, but I haven't seen anything about an offer, so I'm going to take the Vikings.
Vikings 24, Falcons 23 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
The Falcons have been lifeless on offense the past few games. That has to change, but that will be tough as Kirk Cousins comes back to face his former team. The Vikings are good on defense, but something says Cousins will rebound from last week's debacle to play well enough to keep Atlanta in the game.
Vikings 26, Falcons 23 – Staff, Bleacher Report
The Atlanta Falcons have lost three consecutive games while averaging 12 points. Kirk Cousins has thrown six interceptions and zero touchdown passes in that stretch.
After the Falcons loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, the quarterback denied he's dealing with an injury that's adversely impacted his performances.
If Cousins feels "good" physically, his abilities may be on a sharp decline in his age-36 term, which should make anyone in favor of the Falcons nervous, even with a touchdown spread.
Yet [Bleacher Report NFL analyst Brad] Gagnon isn't worried about the Vikings running up the score, and he's aware of their close wins over the last two weeks, which is why he expects the Falcons to stay within a field goal or Cousins to lead an upset win over his former team.
"I don't totally believe in Minnesota yet, and the Vikings have barely survived the last two weeks," Gagnon said. "They're due for an L following two wins by a combined four points, and they've at least proved they aren't in the business of winning in blowout fashion.
"This is a lot of points considering how badly the Falcons need a win, and it would be quintessential Cousins for the 36-year-old to suddenly bounce back with a strong performance here," Gagnon added. "Atlanta could win this outright. I figure it'll at least be a field-goal game."
Vikings 30, Falcons 27 – Bill Bender, Sporting News
The Vikings have mastered the one-score victory with Sam Darnold. He has two TD passes and no interceptions in each of his past three games. Atlanta is 5-4 in games decided by eight points or less, and Kirk Cousins, who has not thrown a TD pass in three games, breaks out of a midseason slump to keep it close against his former team.
Vikings 31, Falcons 27 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News
Kirk Cousins is playing poorly and struggling with interceptions going into his tough road game at his former home in Minnesota. Brian Flores and the Vikings defense will work to be aggressive to put pressure on him, but Cousins will rebound with a motivated performance to keep the NFC South leaders in the game. In the end, counterpart Sam Darnold gets to go to work on a weaker pass defense at home.
6 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB
8 of 9 experts (2 of 11 total had not submitted) pick the Vikings, ESPN
4 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report
6 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic
