EAGAN, Minn. — A short week, a long road trip and a quality opponent that has been a nemesis for Minnesota — the Seattle Seahawks (8-6) — await the Vikings (12-2) in Week 16.
The Vikings have had an interesting schedule segmentation over the back half of the season, with three consecutive road games in Weeks 10-12 and three consecutive home games in Weeks 13-15.
After claiming all six to extend their win streak to seven games, the Vikings now are trying to win three more to control their own destiny toward the No. 1 seed in the NFC Playoffs.
It won't be easy, however, as the three remaining opponents (Seahawks, Packers and Lions) have a combined win percentage of .714, which is tied with Chicago and New England for the hardest remaining slate.
Minnesota last won a regular-season game in the Pacific Northwest in 2006 — thanks, Chester Taylor and your franchise-record, 95-yard TD scamper — and has lost in each of its past five visits to the Emerald City, including in 2020 when Seattle converted fourth-and-10 with a 39-yard pass from Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf on the way to a 6-yard touchdown by the duo on fourth-and-goal with 15 seconds remaining.
Kickoff is 3:05 p.m. (CT), and the game will air on FOX.
Vikings Uniform
The Vikings will wear their modern road uniform combo of a white jersey and purple pants.
Look back at photos over the course of time featuring games between the Vikings and the Seahawks.
4 Storylines
1. On the pass rush
Minnesota's front seven is wrecking games, plain and simple.
Jonathan Greenard has 11 sacks – not to mention four forced fumbles, trailing Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt (6) for the most punchouts in the league. Andrew Van Ginkel has 9.0 sacks, Pat Jones II has 7.0, and four other Vikings have 2-plus.
Sacks, of course, are just half the story. The Vikings defense is dictating terms by hurrying quarterbacks – quite literally, its 60 hurries on the year is the NFL's highwater mark – and doing it via a sky-high blitz frequency; Minnesota's 38.9 blitz percent on dropbacks is 5.5% higher than the No. 2 team (Kansas City).
As for Seattle, its 32 sacks sit in the bottom half of the NFL – but don't confuse that figure with failure to rush the passer. The Seahawks defense is tied for ninth in total pressures (129) and tied for sixth in percent of quarterback knockdowns per pass attempt (11.8%). Yep, they affect the quarterback greatly.
The Seahawks front seven is spearheaded by Leonard "Big Cat" Williams, who has 7.0 sacks and 21 quarterback hits, and 2022 and 2023 second-round draft picks Boye Mafe (5.0) and Derick Hall (6.0).
According to Next Gen Stats, Seattle is the only team in the NFL so far with five players each responsible for 30 or more pressures: Hall (44), Williams (37), Mafe (36), Dre'Mont Jones (32) and Jarren Reed (31).
2. Seattle QB situation
Starter Geno Smith was forced out of Sunday Night Football against Green Bay after he was hit awkwardly after throwing an incompletion early in the second half of Seattle's 30-13 loss and suffered a knee injury.
Sam Howell went 5-of-14 passing with 24 yards and one interception in relief of Smith, who started the game 11-for-11 but missed on four of his final eight attempts and tossed a costly red-zone interception.
With Smith, the Seahawks passing game has been dangerous. With Howell, it's uncertain.
While only two players have thrown more picks than Smith's 13 – Kirk Cousins (16) and Baker Mayfield (14) – the former Jets first-round draft pick (sounds familiar, eh?) ranks fifth in completion percentage (69.9%), fourth in passing yards per game (258.8) and is tied for third with three fourth-quarter comebacks.
Smith's actually on pace for 4,399 pass yards, which would reset his franchise record (4,282 in 2022).
Howell, meanwhile, is an 18-game starter in his three-year career – he started all 17 in 2023 with Washington – and is the only player in the past five years with 20-plus TD and 20-plus INT in a season.
The more you know: Van Ginkel had a 33-yard pick six off Howell in Week 13 last year.
3. Sam Darnold airing it out
Frankly, it's difficult to understand why Darnold doesn't have better MVP odds.
Forget the fact he's leading a 12-2 club, or his nine games in a row with 200-plus passing yards is the longest-active streak in the NFL. Or his 53 completions of 20-plus yards is the gold standard. Or his passer rating, 104.9, is fourth, or that Darnold is top five in touchdown passes (29) and yards per attempt (8.3).
It's OK, Darnold seems to prefer flying under the national radar.
In his past five games, he's clipped 66.1% of his throws for 1,389 yards, 12 touchdowns and one pick. Minnesota in that span has averaged 29.6 points, a nice improvement from its first nine contests (24.6).
4. Sprint to the finish
To help gauge how contested the rights to this year's division title will be, there's this tidbit: The NFC North has three teams with at least 10 wins in 2024; the rest of the league has four such teams.
Of course, to echo Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell, the focus is on going 1-0.
Nevertheless, it's contextually important to look back – and ahead.
During Minnesota's seven-game win streak, which by the way is behind Philadelphia's tear of 10 for the league's longest-active run, it's gone 3-0 on the road, with wins over inferior opponents – sorry to be curt Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago. (Their combined record of 10-32 equates to a .238 win percentage.)
The next three overall – Seattle and Detroit in Week 18 on the road – are considerably stronger.
Minnesota's sprint to the finish, with one game at home against Green Bay, features an opponent win percentage of .714. The Vikings are tied for the toughest remaining strength of schedule per Tankathon.
Vikings are Headed to the Playoffs!
View everything about the 2024 Vikings playoffs including tickets on sale.
3 Things 'Bout the Seahawks
1. Talented backfield
Welcome to "The Zach Charbonnet Show."
With Kenneth Walker III on the shelf the past two games because of a calf injury, Charbonnet has submitted 30 carries for 188 rushing yards (6.3 avg.) and three scores, plus eight catches for 71 yards.
In four starts this season – Charbonnet also got extended looks in Weeks 2 and 3 when Walker was out with an oblique injury – the 2023 second-round selection has averaged 108.8 scrimmage yards, which amounts to the No. 3 tally for players in starts, trailing Saquon Barkley (140.3) and Derrick Henry (114.2).
Conversely, Walker's averaging far fewer scrimmage yards per game (81.3) and has been hampered by an uncharacteristically poor 3.7 yards per rush. Yet, he's managed eight touchdowns and with Charbonnet ranks as one of two RB duos in the NFL (also David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs) each with 8-plus TDs.
Both players bring super traits. Walker has forced the fourth-most missed tackles (58) per PFF – three fewer than NFL leader James Conner of the Cardinals via 72 fewer opportunities – and Charbonnet has racked the fourth-most yards after contact per carry (3.8) according to NGS; Bucky Irving is tops at 4.5.
View photos of the Vikings 53-man roster as of December 3, 2024.
2. Success in the slot
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is enjoying quite the second-year breakout.
The 2023 No. 20 overall draft pick is one of four players this season with 85-plus receptions, 900-plus receiving yards and 5-plus touchdown catches (Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb).
Since Nov. 3 against the Rams, Smith-Njigba is averaging 101 yards and seven catches per contest. Amazingly, he's strung together six consecutive games with 70-plus receiving yards after zero his rookie year. Also, he and DK Metcalf are the only WR teammates with 70-plus yards per game (min. 10 games).
Notably, the bulk of Smith-Njigba's work occurs out of the slot. Pro Football Focus determines there's no one remotely close to as useful in that space. Smith-Njigba has compiled 863 receiving yards, 87% of his total tally, from the slot – the next most productive slot per PFF is Buffalo's Khalil Shakir, with 550 yards.
Sounds like a big assignment for Vikings slot maven Byron Murphy, Jr., who's allowed a 77.8 passer rating when targeted in that alignment – Murphy has permitted 33 catches on 43 looks and nabbed three picks.
3. Offensive line issues
The Vikings defensive front ought to be foaming at the mouth to chase after Smith (or Howell).
According to NGS, Smith has faced quick pressure on 18.9 percent of dropbacks, the highest mark among qualified quarterbacks. Hot flashes have resulted in Smith being sacked the third-most times, 43, behind Caleb Williams (58) and C.J. Stroud (45). We feel obliged to mention that Darnold has suffered 42 sacks.
OK back to Smith, and Seattle's o-line.
Smith is one of four players in 2024 to endure multiple games of 7-plus sacks. He was sacked that many times in losses to the Rams and Giants. Also on that list are Williams, Will Levis and Deshaun Watson.
It's not a "Smith problem" either as Howell was sacked on four of 19 dropbacks (21%) against Green Bay.
In 2023, Howell took more sacks, 65, than anyone else, and the fourth most in a season since 1970.
View home and away photos of the Vikings 2024 regular season opponents.
2 Vikings to Track
Jonathan Greenard: The outside linebacker is tied with Keith Millard (11 in 1985) and trails only Jared Allen (14.5 in 2008) for the most sacks by a Viking in his first year with the club (since 1982 when sacks became an official stat. Greenard has recorded a sack and a forced fumble in three of his past four games.
Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison: Might as well as combine this super duo into one entry as a bonus. Jefferson needs five receptions to pass Anthony Carter (478) for fifth on the team's all-time receptions list. Addison needs one more receiving touchdown to tie former Vikings and Seahawks receiver Sidney Rice (18) for 20th all-time in franchise history.
1 Key Matchup
Minnesota RB Aaron Jones, Sr., vs. Seattle run defense
Buffalo's James Cook piled up 111 rushing yards in a 31-10 win at Seattle in Week 8.
Since then, the Seahawks have clamped down on running backs, with zero 100-yard rushers allowed.
Enter: Aaron Jones, Sr.
The Vikings RB is headed in the right direction to buck that trend, coming off games with 73 and 86 yards on the ground and a touchdown in each. FYI, Jones most recently broke the 100-yard barrier in Week 12.
In nine games this season that Jones has surpassed 60 yards rushing, Minnesota's point differential is +104. In the five that Jones has been held down, the margin of victory for the Vikings is trimmed to +13.
The desired impact is as such that when Jones and Minnesota's run game successfully softens the defense, it opens ops for Darnold and playmakers such as Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
Sunday's forecast of 50 degrees and rain showers further necessitates Jones' heavy involvement.
The 30-year-old Jones is averaging the second-most rushing yards per game in his career (69.9) and can eclipse his personal best of 1,558 scrimmage yards (2019) by averaging 86 over his next three. He'll enter elite territory regardless by averaging 66 as there are only 16 running backs 30 or older who have combined for 23 instances of 1,500 yards in a season. Adrian Peterson did it in 2015.
Jones, who scored his 50th rushing touchdown last week, needs 81 rushing yards to boost his career total to 7,000.