EAGAN, Minn. — The Vikings (6-2) will visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) on Sunday with a chance to improve to 3-0 this season against AFC South foes in Week 10.
It is just the eighth overall game between the franchises in a series that began in 1998 with a 50-10 Vikings win. Minnesota is 6-1 all-time, having won the past five and in both prior trips to Jacksonville (2008 and 2016).
Vikings Uniform
The Vikings will wear their modern road uniform combination of white jerseys and purple pants.
View photos of games between the Vikings and Jaguars through the years.
4 Storylines
1. Time to be turnover-free
The Vikings cut down on the "self-inflicteds" last week.
Well, in most capacities they did. Minnesota's offense improved its overall efficiency, committing no pre-snap infractions against Indianapolis (the unit was penalized once for holding), and set all types of season highs in production and possession. But things weren't perfect. The turnover battle was lost 3-2.
Fortunately, there's no better time than in Week 10 for Minnesota to play mistake-free football.
The Jaguars have forced five turnovers (two interceptions and three fumbles) in nine games. They're tied with the Cleveland and Las Vegas defenses for the fewest takeaways this year, and they're second-to-last in percentage of drives ending in an offensive turnover (4.1%). Furthermore, the Jags defense is one of two units yielding 6 yards per play and has allowed the second-most yards (389.3) and points (28) per game.
While the Vikings don't want to be gun-shy offensively – Sam Darnold spinning it should actually be priority against the defense allowing the highest passer rating (113.4) this season – they can work on cleaning up their operation. Minnesota's 13 turnovers is fifth most in the NFL; 13.2% of drives have ended with a giveaway.
2. Bringing the heat
If Minnesota's front-seven replicates its Week 9 performance, all will be well in Duval.
Overall, the Vikings defense returned to form on Sunday Night Football. The run defense was smothering; the secondary made several clutch pass breakups; and the pass rush stole the show in the waning minutes, recording all three of its sacks against the Colts in the final 2:05 of the game.
Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores is sending blitzes on 41.3% of opposing dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL per Next Gen Stats, but in Week 9 managed to affect Colts QB Joe Flacco with four-man-or-fewer rushes. The success of alternating styles has led to five different players tallying 2-plus sacks and three with 5-plus. Simply put, the scheme – and personnel – is packing a punch.
3. Back in a flash
New Vikings left tackle Cam Robinson traded Jaguars Teal for Vikings Purple on Oct. 30.
Amazingly, Robinson's second game with Minnesota is against the team he played for in 94 games, including playoffs, from 2017-24; the same club that drafted him 34th overall when he was 22 years old.
Robinson is thankful for his next chapter. He was inserted as a starter last Sunday against the Colts, about 72 hours after his initial practice with the Vikings, and played well, not allowing a sack or quarterback hit. Afterwards, he expressed gratitude for his situation, like he did for the Jags organization upon his arrival.
"That was home for me," Robinson said last week. "I loved everyone there. I [still] love everyone there."
His familiarity with Jacksonville's pass rush could be a massive edge in Week 10, granted its ranked last in blitz percentage (15.2%) and is in the bottom half of the NFL in sacks (20) and pressures (61).
Robinson mainly will face Josh Hines-Allen, who notched 17.5 sacks in 2023 and has 5.0 so far this season (2.0 last week, by the way). Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall pick in 2022, has 6.5 sacks primarily lined up at left defensive end – thus he rushes the right tackle – and is seldom used on the right side. They're responsible for nine of the Jags 18 quarterback hits this season according to Pro Football Focus.
4. Three-game road stretch
The Vikings will log more than 5,000 miles between boarding the team charter Saturday for their jaunt to Jacksonville and the returning flight home from their Nov. 24 game in the Windy City. The three weeks of excursions include action at the Jaguars, Titans (2-6) and Bears (4-4).
If Minnesota can take care of business on this rare three-game road swing, it will be 9-2 once it begins its December schedule with three in a row at home against Arizona (5-4), Atlanta (6-3) and Chicago.
OK, let's not get too ahead.
The Vikings commence their longest stretch of road games in 2024 at Jacksonville, which lost previously to NFC North rivals Chicago, 35-16, and Green Bay, 30-27, and currently is perched at the bottom of the AFC South. But they're no slouch. The Jags are 2-2 at home (one win was in London), with narrow losses by five and three points.
3 Things 'Bout the Jaguars
1. Too close for comfort
Jacksonville's 2-7 record is somewhat misleading – five of seven losses have been decided by five or fewer points. In other words, the Jaguars are competitive, and especially so in the second half of games.
On the year, Jacksonville is getting blasted on the scoreboard, 252-195. But the Jags are barely on the wrong side of the margin, with a seven-point deficit (118-111), in second halves. And it's not like opponents are taking their foot of the gas or Jacksonville is shortening the gap against backups; the Jags were outscored 34-20 after the intermission of both of their non-one-score losses. They're just scrappy.
That fight-till-the-end mentality is dangerous – not to mention impressive; Jacksonville is one of the younger NFL teams (25.8 years average per Spotrac). Conversely, the Vikings are one of the oldest (27.2), so any scoring lapses (see Week 9 first half; Week 7 second quarter; Week 4 second half) could be costly.
2. Brian Thomas, Jr.
The fourth wide receiver picked in the 2024 NFL Draft leads all rookies with 595 yards receiving via 35 receptions (17.0 avg.). Brian Thomas, Jr., already has games featuring 66-, 85- and 58-yard catches and has quickly supplanted WR Calvin Ridley, who signed with the Titans in free agency, in the Jags offense.
The 22-year-old Thomas does his sharpest work from the slot – he's lined up inside the numbers on all five of his touchdowns – and runs a lot of "Go" routes. His game is predicated on speed – he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds – and strength at the catch point. Thomas drew 8-plus targets in Weeks 3-5 but has been featured all of four times, with only two and three grabs, in each of his last two games.
In Week 9, Thomas was listed as questionable to play due to a chest injury but wound up logging a season-high snap share (91%) – in addition to a season-low 22 yards receiving. We know, confounding – Jags QB Trevor Lawrence has a 119.7 passer rating looking for Thomas and 80.6 targeting anyone else.
3. Not-so-super stars
Two years ago, Lawrence and Clemson teammate Travis Etienne, Jr., were on the brink of leading the Jaguars to an upset of eventual Super Bowl LVII Champion Kansas City in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
That game, and their inspiring performances, feels like it occurred in another lifetime.
Jacksonville's QB-RB duo is special when they're in their zones, but their production – and consistency – has taken a blow in 2024. Lawrence is clipping 61.3% of his throws, his lowest mark since completing 59.6% his rookie year, and he is coming off a season-low passer rating (40.9) in Jacksonville's 28-23 loss to the Eagles. The 2021 No. 1 overall draft pick deserves a little slack as PFF lists the Jaguars receiving corps with 18 drops (for comparison, the Vikings have six) and his favorite target, Christian Kirk, is injured.
Etienne's decline is more puzzling. He hasn't rushed more than 13 times in a game this season and his snaps dwindled to 38% in Week 5 as Jacksonville started to lean on Tank Bigsby out of the backfield. Etienne, who eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier in each of his first two seasons, missed two games because of a hamstring injury suffered in Week 6, but his role was again diminished when he reentered the lineup at Philadelphia. Maybe he's not healthy. Maybe Bigsby has leapfrogged him for good. Whatever the case, Etienne has a long history of thriving beside Lawrence, dating to their 2018 National Championship days.
2 Vikings to Track
Justin Jefferson: It's time for the weekly appreciation post of the fifth-year receiver, who enters Sunday's game tied with Adam Thielen for fourth on the Vikings career receiving yardage leaderboard with 6,682. Jefferson is only 103 away from setting the NFL record for the most receiving yards in a player's first five seasons, which was set by Randy Moss (6,743 in 80 games) and topped by Torry Holt (6,784 in 80 games) a year later. This will be Jefferson's 69th career game. He also can tie a record that was set by former Jaguars star Jimmy Smith for most games to start a season with at least one 25-yard catch. Smith had nine such games to open 2004. Isaac Bruce (eight games in 2000) is the only other player with a streak as long as Jefferson's (stat tracked since 1994).
Sam Darnold: The quarterback has recorded a passer rating of 100 or higher in seven of eight starts this season, which is tied with Lamar Jackson for the most in the NFL. He is the first Vikings QB to hit triple digits seven times in the first eight games of any season. Darnold's play has helped Minnesota be one of two teams (along with Baltimore) to score at least 20 points in every game so far this season. The only other Vikings team to do that was the 1998 squad, which did so in every game.
1 Key Matchup
Vikings defense vs. Jaguars tight end Evan Engram
Wheel routes off motion. H-back bubble screens. Corner routes out of the slot. Shallow crossers from a traditional alignment. Evan Engram is a mismatch for linebackers and safeties wherever he's stationed.
Engram was sidelined four games after injuring his hamstring in pregame warmups in Week 2, but he has been automatic in his return, catching 24 of 30 targets for 218 yards and a touchdown in four appearances. In Jacksonville's first of two games played in London, the 30-year-old TE snared all 10 targets for 102 yards. He earned 10 targets, again, in Week 9, becoming one of five TEs this season with 10-plus at least twice.
Also on that list are Tampa Bay's Cade Otton (3 in 9 games), Kansas City's Travis Kelce (3 in 8), Las Vegas' Brock Bowers (3 in 9) and Dallas' Jake Ferguson (2 in 7). FYI, Engram has done it in the fewest games (5).
Since 2023, Engram ranks second among tight ends and eighth regardless of position with 139 catches. Last season, he ranked second at TE to Cleveland's David Njoku (599) with 508 yards after the catch.
All this to say, it will be key for the Vikings to limit the connections between Lawrence and Engram. Tape exists of tight ends beating Minnesota's defense – in Weeks 2 and 4, San Francisco's George Kittle and Green Bay's Tucker Kraft posted 7-76-1 and 6-53-1 receiving lines.
More recently Minnesota has been susceptible to losing over the middle of the field in three games without starting Mike linebacker Blake Cashman, who excels in taking away curl/hitch routes inside the numbers and has great instincts carrying a target up the seam, the Vikings are short-staffed and weaker against the pass. Cashman might be available in Week 10.
But no matter, Engram is the do-it-all weapon in Jacksonville's offense that can really wear on a defense.