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Vikings vs Colts Week 9 Game Preview

EAGAN, Minn. — The Vikings (5-2) will host the Colts (4-4) and try to break a two-game skid on Sunday Night Football in Week 9.

It is just the second game at U.S. Bank Stadium for Minnesota since Sept. 22, and the only one until Dec. 1, so the Vikings want to protect their home turf under the bright lights.

Vikings Uniform

The Vikings will wear their modern home uniform combination of purple jerseys and white pants.

4 Storylines

1. Cam Robinson joins the Vikings

For the third year in a row, the Vikings front office was motivated to "buy" ahead of the trade deadline out of necessity – Joshua Dobbs replaced Kirk Cousins after the quarterback suffered an Achilles injury in 2023 and T.J. Hockenson arrived to offset the placement of tight end Irv Smith, Jr., on Injured Reserve in 2022.

Minnesota agreed on terms of a trade with Jacksonville to bring Cam Robinson to the left side of the Vikings offensive line after Christian Darrisaw's season was upended by ACL and MCL injuries on Thursday Night Football.

Robinson, 29, has started all 91 regular-season games he's played. Robinson was held out by Jaguars coach Doug Pederson in Week 8 this year and played only five snaps in Week 7 – likely because the team wanted to gauge what it had behind Robinson before parting ways. In Week 5, he helped the Jags beat the Colts, 37-34.

Robinson arrived in Minnesota Wednesday and underwent a physical, so he was not yet available for Wednesday's practice.

Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell noted Robinson's experience, coupled with the nature of the tackle position – i.e. its primary responsibility on weighty downs is slowing down edge rushers – allows for a fairly smooth transition in a new system, no matter the differences in terminology.

Speaking of Hockenson, the two-time Pro Bowl invitee is fully recovered from his ACL and MCL tears and set to make his 2024 debut this week. He could quickly emerge as Sam Darnold's second-favorite target – Hockenson has reliable hands and averaged 8.5 targets per game in his first 25 appearances in Purple.

Vikings Offensive Coordinator Wes Phillips credited Hockenson for "the mismatch that he can create against safeties [and] linebackers, [and] his ability to win versus match or man coverage." Phillips added: "All those things are pretty unique for a tight end who also gives you value in the run game."

2. Colts shift from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco

On Monday, Colts Head Coach Shane Steichen said in reference to Anthony Richardson, "We are evaluating everything." Less than 24 hours later, the Colts benched the fourth overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft in favor of Joe Flacco, who was drafted 18th overall in 2008. It's a big move – but surprising? Not really.

Richardson's 44.8% completion rate (59-for-133) represents the lowest mark in the NFL, by about 15 points, among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes. It's a historically poor start over the first six games. In fact, according to Stathead, only 14 QBs since 1970 have posted a worse clip on 130-plus attempts in their first six games; Derek Anderson in 2009 (42.9%) is the only other since 2000.

The incompletions, seven interceptions and league-leading six fumbles reaffirm what masses believed of Richardson when he left for the NFL after 13 college starts: he's inexperienced; raw; and a project that'll take time, which right now the Colts aren't afforded. Indianapolis is one of eight AFC clubs .500 or better.

3. Epic last meeting

For 42 years, the gold standard of NFL regular-season comebacks was San Francisco's 28-point come-from-behind win over the Saints. The Vikings raised the bar on Dec. 17, 2022, against the Colts.

On that day, Minnesota fell behind 33-0 in an ugly first half, which featured four field goals, two non-offensive touchdowns and one pass for points by Matt Ryan. It was a gross sight for the 66,801 fans on hand at U.S. Bank Stadium. No fault to anyone who left, but the people who stayed witnessed history.

The Vikings stiffened in the third quarter, outscoring the Colts 14-3 and unleashed 22 consecutive points to tie the game in the fourth, eventually setting up Greg Joseph for the game-winning 40-yard kick in OT.

Here are some of the crazier notes in that game: Kirk Cousins passed for a then-personal-best 460 yards (he threw for 509 in Week 5 this season for the Falcons); K.J. Osborn was the top Vikings receiver, besting Justin Jefferson in yards, 157-123; Dalvin Cook had the exact number of receiving yards as he did rushing (95); and Chandon Sullivan returned two fumbles to the end zone, but they were both foiled by whistles.

View game action images between matchups of the Vikings and Colts through the years.

4. Vikings defense regaining its footing

Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores said there's valuable lessons the Vikings can learn from their two losses: basic communication and checking into correct alignments; limiting penalties that revive drives; understanding the miniscule margin for error; and being disciplined in "the minutia within the details."

"It can become monotonous to set an edge over and over and over again when you know, 'If I jump inside, I can make a play,' " Flores conveyed Tuesday. "I talked to our guys about the 'my bad' plays. If you say, 'my bad' and you say 'my bad' and you say 'my bad' and you say 'my bad,' you end up with seven to 10 'my bad' plays. … I'm not saying people have to play perfect, but – I tell them that all the time, we don't have to play perfect, but we've got to play good. And what that means is doing the routine things."

Since their Week 6 bye, the Vikings have been gashed by the run (125.5 yards per game/4.3 yards per carry), picked on by the pass (263.0 yards per game/8.9 yards per attempt) and managed four sacks and two takeaways. In its 5-0 start, Minnesota mustered 20 sacks and forced 13 turnovers (2.6 avg.).

Flores acknowledged how big of a loss it is not having Mike linebacker and green dot Blake Cashman, but he repeated the same messaging as players recently – that they're embracing the next-man up mentality.

Cashman is five tackles short of team leader Harrison Smith (45) despite turf toe keeping him out of the past two games. That activity around the ball is missed, but more seriously is the drop-off in Minnesota's middle-of-the-field pass defense. Cashman is tied for second on the team with five passes defended – as many as teammates Camryn Bynum, Shaq Griffin and Byron Murphy, Jr.; he's patient and instinctive in coverage.

3 Things 'Bout the Colts

1. Good ground game

The Colts feature the No. 10 rushing offense in terms of yards on the ground, yards per rush, first downs and touchdowns. The ground attack has outgained the aerial assault two weeks straight.

Benching Richardson does sap the backfield – the dual-threat QB is contributing 40.3 yards rushing per game – but doesn't fully dehydrate it, because Jonathan Taylor picked up in Week 8 where he had left off in Week 4.

The 2021 NFL rushing champion missed three games after suffering an ankle injury in Week 4, but he was quick to regain form, putting up 105 yards at 5.3 a pop in the Colts narrow 23-20 loss to the Texans. On the year, Taylor has five end-zone visits, and he's averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per rush and 90.8 yards per game.

In Flacco's two starts earlier this year – the Colts, by the way, were handicapped without Taylor – the offense shuttled between Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson and had some semblance of balance, rushing for 99 and 80 yards against a pair of top-12 run defenses. The Vikings check in at No. 3 in that area.

2. Different offense with different quarterbacks

There's some unpredictability with Richardson behind center because of his freakish athleticism and throwing power – and flair for explosive, off-script playmaking over precise every-down execution.

Preparing to defend Flacco begs fewer questions but not fewer problems. The 39-year-old former Super Bowl MVP is 1-1 in starts this season for Indianapolis – he also relieved Richardson early against Pittsburgh in Week 4 and managed to usher a victory – and 5-2 in regular-season starts since 2023. For the Colts, Flacco's clipped 65.7% of his passes with 716 yards, seven touchdowns and one pick.

Incredibly, his 18 touchdown passes over his seven most recent starts (since Dec. 3 last season with Cleveland) count as the most in any seven-game span as a starter in Flacco's 17-year career. He's 39 years old and thriving.

The quarterback play, obviously, has a tremendous impact on offensive success.

In three games Flacco has taken 80% or more of the snaps, the Colts are averaging 23.7 points and winning the turnover margin 5-2. In five games of as many snaps with Richardson at the helm, the Colts are scoring 18.8 points per contest and losing the turnover battle 7-9. The latter player, of course, adds an offensive element that even on his springiest days Flacco can't match: He can beat opponents with his legs.

3. Barely blitzing

The Colts defense has blitzed on 15% of dropbacks this season. The only group with a smaller blitz percentage is the Jaguars (14.6%). Although Indianapolis' mainly four-man-or-fewer rushes are hurrying the passer, generating the seventh-most hurries (25), they're often shy of getting home. The Colts defense is tied for 20th in sacks (16), tied for 24th in knockdowns (15) and tied for 17th in pressure rate (19.6%).

Individually, fourth-year defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo leads the whimsical Colts pass rush with 3.0 sacks, while prized rookie Laiatu Latu, the first defensive player picked in the 2024 NFL Draft, has two sacks across 308 defensive snaps. For a little cross-examination fun, Vikings rookie OLB Dallas Turner, drafted two slots after Latu, has half as many sacks in fewer than one-third of the defensive snaps.

Save for a breakout by any of the 12 Colts defenders with at least half-a-sack, Minnesota's revamped o-line should be able to keep Darnold clean. FYI, Robinson allowed zero pressures on Oct. 6 against Indy.

2 Vikings to Track

T.J. Hockenson: Often, we bring up approaching milestones, but this is more about completing a comeback for the tight end who was injured on his 95th catch of 2023. Hockenson is expected to play and start making an impact on the offense. This will be Hockenson's third Week 9 game with Minnesota, falling almost two years after his Vikings debut. Hockenson quickly synched with the offense, catching nine passes for 70 yards on nine targets. Last season, he helped the combination of Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs with seven catches for 69 yards in Week 9 at Atlanta. Now, he'll need to coordinate with Darnold.

Justin Jefferson: The receiver will be playing his third career game against the Colts and has a streak of five consecutive games with at least six catches and 80 yards. It is the fourth such streak by a Vikings player all-time and his second. He can tie his run of six games in 2022, which ranks second in franchise history behind Adam Thielen (eight in 2018).

1 Key Matchup

Vikings secondary vs. Colts wide receivers

On Thursday Night Football, the Vikings defense struggled. Its pass-rush stalled, failing to record a sack for the first time this year; it buckled on weighty downs, giving up three touchdowns on three trips to the red zone; and the secondary allowed eight passes of 15-plus yards.

Enter: Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.

Both Colts receivers can take the top off defenses and score in a wink. Pierce has gone for 125-plus yards and a touchdown on three catches in two games already this year, and Downs went for 4-109-1 in Week 8. Together, they've submitted three of the NFL's 34 offensive plays in 2024 that have gained 60-plus yards.

Neither player, however, is WR1 on the Colts. That title belongs to Michael Pittman, Jr., in terms of pay and targets per game (6.6). Pittman's production has decreased from 72.0 yards per game in 2023 to 44.0 this season, and his catch rate of 54.7% is approximately 13 points lower than his career figure of 67.6% – but he's still dangerous. Pittman has drawn five-plus targets in 28 consecutive games.

All this to say, despite Indianapolis' offense on paper leaving a lot to desire, the Colts receiving corps can't be taken lightly. Pittman, Pierce and Downs are capable of changing and dominating scoreboards, so the Vikings will try to keep from adding to their tally of 24 pass plays of 20-plus yards allowed this season.

Flores stressed this week that defensive success formulates on the Vikings finding the right mixture of coverage, pressure, blitzes and max drops. That process is part of the ongoing chess match with offenses.

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