EAGAN, Minn. — The Vikings are the first team with 14-plus wins to not win a division title and will become the first squad to play a road playoff game before a conference championship.
The only other three teams to win 14 or more games and play a road playoff game were the 1972 Dolphins (won AFC Championship and Super Bowl VII to finish season 17-0), 1998 Falcons (ugh, you know what happened in that NFC Championship, and lost Super Bowl XXXIII to the Broncos) and the 2004 Patriots (won AFC Championship 41-27 and Super Bowl XXXIX).
Interestingly, the Vikings will try to replicate the success of the 2021 Rams, who lost their final game of the regular season and finished as the No. 4 seed. That squad, which included Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell as its offensive coordinator, multiple assistants and players, is the only participant in a 4-5 game to win the Monday Wild Card game and advance past the Divisional Round on the way to claiming Super Bowl LVI.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. (CT) Monday.
Vikings Uniform
The Vikings will wear their modern road uniform combo of white jerseys and purple pants.
Look back on images from past games between the Vikings and the Rams.
4 Storylines
1. Darnold's rebound
What quarterback this season has the most games of a passer rating above 100 and 2-plus pass TDs?
Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow are tied at 11. Then there's a two-game dropoff – Josh Allen has nine and Bo Nix and Baker Mayfield have seven. The answer is Sam Darnold with 12, the fourth most by a QB in a single season all-time and most since Aaron Rodgers set the record with 14 in 2020.
We lead with that because of overreactions to Darnold's down game at Detroit with the division at stake.
The bottom line is there's zero flinching within the organization about Darnold's ability to bounce back. He did it after tossing three interceptions in a 12-7 win at Jacksonville, proceeding to throw 11 touchdowns with no interceptions over his next four games; he did it, too, with unbelievably clutch passes in the narrowest types of victories in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Seahawks and Packers.
Darnold knows this territory, this not-always-warranted external skepticism like the back of his hand.
There's maybe no one in the NFL better prepared to rebound.
2. Traveling fans
The site of Monday night's showdown is in jeopardy because of the devastating California wildfires.
While SoFi Stadium hasn't been affected, the NFL on Wednesday released its contingency plan to relocate the game to State Farm Stadium, home of the Cardinals, if necessary. After likely considering factors such as air quality and the availability of emergency services, the NFL on Thursday night confirmed that relocation.
"Voice of the Vikings" Paul Allen on his weekly radio show Xs and Os with Head Coach Kevin O'Connell recalled the scene at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona, when current Vikings quarterbacks coach Josh McCown led the Cardinals to an upset win over Minnesota, playing spoiler to its 2023 playoff pursuits.
That atmosphere was packed with traveling Vikings fans, many venturing from the San Diego area, which is home to a large cohort of Purple supporters. Regardless of the location of Monday night's game, there may be a similar effect; SoFi Stadium often has opposing fans in attendance, and Arizona is a close enough drive for the Cali residents and prime destination for local Minnesotans to escape the cold.
3. Red zone redemption
Minnesota's woes on Sunday Night Football were magnified in the red zone.
A touchdown 0-fer on four trips inside the Lions 20-yard line plummeted the offense's TD success rate in the red zone from 59.6%, which would rank sixth, to 55.7% – 12th overall and 10th among 14 playoff squads.
O'Connell on Thursday addressed a reporter who asked if scheming players open in the red zone was an area of emphasis in the two seasons working as offensive coordinator under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.
"Across the whole game plan, I think I learned so many things from Sean, but just the idea of doing whatever you can to help your players get open and make it as easy as possible for the quarterback," said O'Connell, emphasizing that success in that phase really is centered on the protection up front. "It's always important to us and it's something that we've been pretty consistent at for most of the season."
4. Complementary football
Minnesota strayed from its proven, winning formula in Week 18.
Get off the field on defense. Move the chains on offense. Take the ball away. Punch it in for points.
During its 14 wins, Minnesota played a harmonized brand of football. Even in some of the tighter results, such as Week 4 at Green Bay when the defense allowed the Packers to stroll back into the game from a 28-point deficit, the Vikings managed four timely takeaways. And in Week 10 at Jacksonville when the Vikings offense failed to score a touchdown, it produced 402 yards, its sixth-most in a game this season.
In other words, players rallied to help teammates on the other side despite not always being up to snuff.
That wasn't the case at Ford Field, where the disconnect between Minnesota defenders making early, momentum-seizing plays and offensive playmakers letting them slip away, repeatedly, was disconcerting.
The silver lining is this team's culture is constructed for a quick fix.
3 Things 'Bout the Rams
1. Tough to blitz Stafford
Matthew Stafford directed a Rams five-game winning streak before resting in the team's regular-season finale loss against the Seahawks. Unbelievably, he averaged fewer than 200 passing yards over that span.
In other words, Los Angeles reeled off wins with minimal reliance on its usually dangerous pass offense.
Stafford's top contributions over that stretch were a razor-sharp performance against the Bills, and a mighty fine job protecting the football (Stafford has tossed one pick since Nov. 17) and avoiding sacks.
That latter element goes back to Oct. 24, when Stafford kept Vikings pass rushers off the sack-sheet.
It was the lone instance this season of Minnesota's defense failing to record a sack and emphasized Stafford's knack for deciphering at the line of scrimmage and delivering the ball with urgency.
"They do a good job of trying to move some pieces to kind of undress the defense a little bit," said Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores, noting a lot happens in the 40-second pre-snap window. "He's got good receivers – they get open. So he does a good job of recognizing the defense, and then he can spit the ball out pretty quickly."
This season, Stafford owns a 105.2 passer rating against the blitz per Next Gen Stats. It's the fifth time he's compiled a rating greater than 100 vs. the blitz in the NGS era (since 2016). Stafford, however, hasn't fared as strongly under duress. His 55.0 passer rating under pressure is fourth worst this season among qualified quarterbacks, ahead of Anthony Richardson, Bo Nix and Gardner Minshew – which bodes well.
That's because the Vikings defense amassed the third-most QB pressures (254) and tied for fourth in the NFL with 49 sacks. Pro Bowl selections Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, by the way, teamed up as one of two duos in the NFL with at least 11.0 sacks (Greenard recorded 12.0 and Van Ginkel 11.5).
Of course, in the Week 8 clash, Stafford's quick decisiveness negated most of those effects.
According to Pro Football Focus, the 36-year-old passer was blitzed on 38.2% of his dropbacks in the 30-20 win over Minnesota and managed to clip 10 of 13 passes for 128 yards (9.8 yards per attempt).
Stafford's blitz-beating skills underlines the importance of four-man-or-fewer pass rushes getting home.
2. Two No. 1 wide receivers
On a short week and even shorter notice, Puka Nacua returned from Injured Reserve and caused problems in the Week 8 game for Minnesota's secondary, catching seven balls for 106 yards, including two receptions for chunk gains on the Rams first possession. Flores admitted that his activation caught the team by surprise.
There won't be 11th hour adjustments in Monday night's rematch.
"They're a very different team with Puka out there. Very different," Flores emphasized. "He brings an element in both the run and the pass game. That's why he's the player that he is. He opens things up for other players – Cooper Kupp being one, certainly. And it's really two No. 1s that you're dealing with."
Flores assured that Minnesota's defense will be better prepared from the standpoint of defending Nacua, who is targeted about 10 times per game and has posted four games with 110-plus receiving yards in the 11 that he's played this season. Nacua also has rushed 11 times for 46 yards and one score.
Kupp, obviously, is problematic as well.
The 2021 Triple Crown winner got off to a tremendous start this season, catching 14 of 21 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown in the L.A.'s season-opening loss at Detroit, and has shined sporadically since then.
Kupp finished the regular season with 67 catches, 710 yards and six TDs in 12 appearances. He brings to the table the third-most receiving yards per game in playoff history, with 93.1 (minimum 5 games), trailing Larry Fitzgerald (104.7) and 1950s Rams star and Pro Football Hall of Famer Tom Fears (97.8).
FYI, Nacua had 181 yards in his 2023 postseason debut, which ranks as the third most by a playoff first-timer in NFL annals, behind the late Demaryius Thomas (204) and Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson (211).
In addition to their threats as receivers, both can really enhance the run game.
"They do a good job of being almost like tight ends. You're not really expecting a receiver to get in there and do something to you, and then they throw their faces in there," everywhere defender Joshua Metellus said. "It makes it that much more in tune with what they do in marrying the run and the pass. They come off hard on the run, the next play they come off hard, and you think it's a run and they're running by you, so it definitely helps their scheme and philosophy a lot. They're really good at it, so we're going to have to be on it."
3. Young nucleus on defense
In a world of What have you done for me lately? The Rams defense has done it all well.
Over its past four, Los Angeles has allowed 13.5 points per game, second fewest to Baltimore (10.8).
The Rams have buckled down in average total yards allowed, improving from 366.1 in Weeks 1-14 to 311.0 in Weeks 15-18, and rushing yards against, yielding close to 50 fewer per game (141.0 to 94.3).
It's a unit spearheaded by young playmakers.
Braden Fiske (24), Kobie Turner (25), Byron Young (26) and Jared Verse (24) have accounted for 28.5 of L.A.'s 38 sacks. Rookies Fiske and Verse have 8.5 and 4.5, in addition to 10 and 18 hits on quarterbacks.
The youthful impact extends to the secondary, with four picks apiece by Kamren Kinchens (22) and Jaylen McCollough (24). Rams rookies rank first in the league in tackles, sacks, QB hits, forced fumbles and interceptions. Expectedly, they've caught the eye of Vikings Offensive Coordinator Wes Phillips.
"Fiske had some good plays against us where, you know, going into it, I think he'd been banged up a little bit and really felt like that game – and then you kind of watch some of the tapes since our game – is maybe kind of his coming out party, where he really started to cause some problems inside," Phillips said. "We had some good movement on some combinations, initially, on him. [He was able] to kind of get grounded, shed guys and get in on some tackles. I was pretty impressed by him, the first go-around.
"I kind of have a little more respect as a coach sometimes against a guy like [Verse] who's got a lot of pass rush but [also impacts] the run game as far as setting edges and being really physical. He's a really good young player," Phillips added. "Across the board, they have a really good young nucleus of players."
2 Vikings to Track
Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison: The stats will reset in the postseason, but Jefferson and Addison will be interesting in continuing their production after becoming just the third set of first-round receivers to each have at least 10 touchdowns in a season. The duo joined Marvin Harrison, Sr., and Reggie Wayne (2004 Colts) and Gary Collins and Paul Warfield (1969 Browns). Jefferson and Addison combined for 121 receptions since Week 8, which trailed only 132 by Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, 124 by Nacua and Kupp and 122 by Chicago's DJ Moore and Keenan Allen.
Andrew Van Ginkel & Jonathan Greenard: Sticking with a dynamic duo theme, the Pro Bowl outside linebackers will have to contend with a very balanced attack from the Rams. If they can sort through run vs. pass and create pressure (particularly without Minnesota implementing blitzes since Stafford has been so good against the blitz but struggled under pressure), then it should provide a nice bump for Minnesota's defense. Each player recorded 18 tackles for loss, and together they totaled 41 QB hits (19 for Van Ginkel and 22 for Greenard) in their first season together.
1 Key Matchup
Kevin O'Connell vs. Sean McVay
We were tempted by a handful of head-to-heads in this game.
Which multi-purposed running back, Aaron Jones, Sr., or Kyren Williams winds up with flashier numbers?
Both finished in the top 10 in rushing yards; Williams carried a career-high 316 times and has accounted for 31 touchdowns since 2023, tied with Vikings-killer Jahmyr Gibbs for most in the league. Meanwhile, Jones ran for a career-best 1,138 yards and is averaging 1.0 rush TDs in 7 playoff games (the three ahead of him in as many games are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame – Terrell Davis, John Riggins and Emmitt Smith).
We also considered a veteran Vikings defense against Stafford's wit; Minnesota's secondary trying to contain a receiving corps that too often uncovered in October, and the o-line keeping Darnold upright.
But in the end, we settled on protégé vs. mentor – O'Connell against Super Bowl-winning Head Coach Sean McVay, who, together, fused brains in 2021 to lead a championship run that started on a Monday.
History doesn't favor O'Connell, as head coaches are 11-2 vs. former assistants in the playoffs in the past 20 seasons and 25-12 since 1960, according to NFL Research.
O'Connell's introspection after an abnormal offensive effort at Detroit should be a valuable asset. So should his quarterback's track record of bouncing back this season, and the positive culture driving the team. Ultimately, O'Connell's steadiness in pressure-cooker moments has readied him for this rematch.
"I think we can start out by saying, what an incredible gift we were given, even though the result wasn't what we wanted," O'Connell said in the final few minutes of his press conference Monday afternoon. "[We are] coming off a national TV game for the division; didn't go our way. But I certainly think there's some things we can extract from that experience – as tough as it is to deal with today. There's not a lot of people walking around here feeling positive about anything that took place yesterday. But part of the type of building and the type of world we've created here is I think we're all looking inward."
Looking for an adjustment, an edge that will be channeled into a shot at redemption – to go 1-0, again.