Sam Darnold's career Renaissance has transcended into a full-fledged MVP-esque season.
The 27-year-old is fifth in touchdown passes (32), seventh in yards (3,776) and fourth in yards per attempt (8.2) and passer rating (105.4). He's also second to Pat Mahomes in game-winning drives (5).
Lest we forget, Darnold has led the Vikings, who were projected by hordes of external media members to finish last in the NFC North, to 13 wins.
At this point, it's less surprising what Darnold manages to do each week and more reassuring that his 2024 is not just his best year yet but also one of the finest quarterback performances witnessed recently.
Matthew Coller of Purple Insider on Thursday likened Darnold's play to traits evident in some of the sport's greatest quarterbacks of yesteryear by referencing an NFL Films video from the mid-1980s.
Coller illuminated how Darnold has crossed off many boxes from the “Best Ever Quarterbacks” checklist, which admires Terry Bradshaw's deep ball, Roger Staubach's clutchness and Fran Tarkenton's playmaking.
Coller wrote the following about Darnold:
His imaginative play was on display against the Atlanta Falcons when he escaped the rush to produce a 52-yard touchdown. His arm strength and mutually beneficial relationship with his receivers has been on display countless times. His resiliency within this season stood out against Arizona and Seattle, when he led game-winning drives. It shines even more against the backdrop of the early part of his career.
To support his analysis, Coller included feedback from Vikings Offensive Coordinator Wes Phillips.
"He's able to keep plays alive and give guys an extra click to separate. Those things are really valuable. And then what he does, stealing us yards … he had a 5- and then a 9-[yard run] to convert [against Seattle]," Phillips commented on Darnold's mobility. "You've seen it over and over and over again. Those things add up throughout the season and within a game. It's just a really valuable thing. Ideally, you have a good athlete back there that can both play from the pocket and then make some plays with his legs."
Coller elaborated on statistical evidence backing up Darnold's imposing skills, too.
Among QBs with at least 300 attempts, Darnold is the sixth highest graded player at his position by Pro Football Focus. He has the fourth highest quarterback rating. He has the third most "Big-Time Throws" and the sixth most total yards. The Vikings QB has 22 first downs rushing to his name, as well.
Read Coller’s full outline of Darnold having "the seventh best single season of the last three years."
Areas to keep tabs on
Alec Lewis of The Athletic on Thursday delved into the Vikings quest to win the NFC North, examining five critical components that "must go in the Vikings favor for the team to continue winning down the stretch."
Lewis discussed explosive plays given up by the defense, the state of the interior of the offensive line, Ivan Pace, Jr. 's availability and impact vs. the run, offensive turnovers and penalties on special teams.
We'll look at two of those phases, and you can read about the rest in Lewis' article here.
First up, Lewis considers Minnesota's "dicey" explosive play rate allowed, which ranks 21st in the league.
Only the Baltimore Ravens have allowed more passes of 16 or more yards this season than the Vikings. Minnesota has made up for this in two areas: turnovers and effectiveness in the red zone.
As Lewis noted, Minnesota's defense has relied on timely thievery and stiffening in tight spots. The Vikings rank first with 22 interceptions and second with 30 takeaways overall. Furthermore, they've surrendered the third-fewest touchdowns from the 20-yard line or closer – 23 TDs on 42 trips (54.8%).
The X-factor in this equation is the pairing of Pace and Blake Cashman. When both players are on the field, the unit's explosive play rate allowed is night and day, and actually best in the NFL at 7.7 percent.
Keeping the theme here, let's dissect the other topic related to Pace, who hasn't played since Week 12 because of a hamstring injury but was designated Tuesday to return from Injured Reserve: run defense.
When Pace plays, the Vikings rank first against the run by a wide margin. When he doesn't, Minnesota's run defense ranks among the worst in the league.
In the eight games Pace has played this season (in his ninth, Nov. 24 at Chicago, he logged five snaps before leaving), the Vikings have yielded an average of 77.5 yards on the ground. In seven contests sans Pace, the group has given up an additional 22 yards per game, including lopsided tallies of 154 and 158.
The reality is some of that output can be attributed to daunting matchups.
Pace was out when the Vikings hosted Arizona and Atlanta, whose top rushers James Conner and Bijan Robinson are in the top 10 in yards per game, as well as top 10 in missed tackles forced, per Pro Football Focus.
Lewis underlines why Pace's involvement will be so important going forward: Teams that have clinched playoff berths (the Lions, Packers and Eagles) and several who could clinch (Buccaneers, Commanders and Falcons) all possess rushing attacks ranked in the top 10 in efficiency.
As such, Minnesota's Super Bowl dreams may hinge on its ability to contain opposing running backs.
