Kevin O'Connell has had the Vikings in this spot before.
Minnesota peeled off seven straight wins after a 1-1 start when O'Connell's tenure as head coach began. The Vikings lost for the second instance in Week 11 that year and twice more the rest of the regular season. It ended sourly, if you recall, with a narrow loss to the nine-win Giants in the Wild Card round of the NFC Playoffs.
Yes, the record this season after 10 games is the same. But so much is different.
Enter: Sam Darnold plus a new and still ascendant defensive coordinator and reconfigured starting lineups on both sides of the ball. The Vikings are 8-2 again but experiencing a completely different light.
Kevin Seifert of ESPN on Wednesday analyzed the amount of luck Minnesota had during its 8-2 start.
No reason to beat around the bush. The answer is none, which is a vast change from a couple years ago.
Seifert explained that O'Connell's debut season in 2022 was enigmatic from start to finish. The Vikings went 13-4 despite owning negative differentials in points and yards. Furthermore, Seifert outlined Minnesota had the worst DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) for any club with 11 or more wins in the 45-year history of the metric.
According to Seifert, teams with similar DVOA performance profiles tend to win five fewer games.
Lots of luck then, but none now. Seifert wrote the following:
The 2024 team is more formidable, both in the underlying data and via the eye test. The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL in point differential (+74), ninth in yard differential (+318) and fourth in DVOA. In other words, their victories have been more sound, forceful and meaningful for making future projections than in 2022, and their losses have been less damaging.
"There's just no comparison between those teams," said Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA who is now the chief analytics officer of FTN Fantasy and a contributor to ESPN. "The 2022 team was close to the strangest year I've ever seen. This year is a completely different situation. The Vikings this season are playing like an 8-2 team. There's no luck involved here. They have played that well."
An accountable culture and common focus has been pivotal to Minnesota defying preseason doubters.
"There are no homecoming games out there," safety Harrison Smith said. "It doesn't matter what people's records are. Everybody has Pro Bowlers. Everybody can score in one play. There are no easy [wins]. They all count as one, and that's been my mindset."
Check out Seifert's article here to grasp the legitimacy of this Vikings team.
Will Bears be able to run?
This Sunday's divisional test at Soldier Field is full of fun storylines, and scheduling No. 1 overall draft choice Caleb Williams for a masters-level introduction to quarterbacking against the blitz is at the top.
Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores will be teaching the class, and defenders dictating grades.
"He's the king of the Cover 0 blitz," Williams said to Windy City media, referring to Flores on Wednesday.
Flores is the king of blitzing in general. He's sending blitzes on a league-high 37.7% of dropbacks. Minnesota's defense ranks in the top three in quarterback hurries, knockdowns, sacks and pressures as a result of that attacking nature. The mere threat of a blitz has negatively impacted QBs against the Vikings.
The effects are widespread. Minnesota is tied for first in takeaways (21) and has the No. 4 scoring defense (17.0 points per game). Offenses are struggling to identify weaknesses because strengths are ubiquitous.
Everything, obviously, circles back to Flores' foot-on-the-gas mentality. It's catching everyone's eyes.
Minnesota's pass rush is the first thing that comes to mind for Bears columnist Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune. Biggs wrote this week that Flores' variety of blitzes and fronts can overwhelm even experienced quarterbacks. Williams, of course, isn't that. He's only 23. And he's the most-sacked player in the NFL.
As such, Biggs hypothesized that running the ball successfully will be key for Chicago in Week 12, writing:
Thomas Brown, who took over as offensive coordinator last week, pledged that everything starts up front, and he remained true to his word. The Bears ran the ball effectively against the Packers with 179 yards. They are 3-2 in games in which they rushed for more than 100 yards, with the two losses both coming on the game's final play — versus the Packers and Oct. 27 against the Washington Commanders.
Easier said than done.
No team is allowing fewer rushing yards per game than the Vikings (74.4). Only the Ravens are allowing fewer yards per carry (3.4 to Minnesota's 3.6) and only the Chargers have given up fewer rushing scores (3 to Minnesota's 4). In the past three weeks, Minnesota has erased Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, Jr., and Tony Pollard. Overall in that stretch, opponents have rushed for 157 yards on 56 attempts (2.8 avg.).
Way easier said than done.
With D'Andre Swift nursing a minor groin injury — he missed practice Wednesday — the Bears are going to have their hands full, although it sounds like he could be good by Sunday. As [Bears Head Coach] Matt Eberflus stated, the Vikings lead the league in forcing opponents into second-and-long situations and they're No. 4 in the league on first down, allowing 4.68 yards per play; the Bears offense is 4th-worst, averaging 4.57 yards.
Second-and-long is no way to make a living against the Vikings, who are tied for third in the NFL with 35 sacks and have three outside linebackers with seven or more — Andrew Van Ginkel with 8.0 and Pat Jones II and Jonathan Greenard with 7.0 each.
"They've got some really underrated dudes on their defense," Bears tight end Cole Kmet said. "Some guys who I think are playing the best in the league right now and don't get the credit for it.
"They're physical and they bring so many different looks," he added. "There is going to be a lot on us up front to make sure we ID things correctly [and] get it communicated right so we can get the run game going."
Say, what is Chicago's record in games it's failed to log 100 yards rushing? Funny you ask: 1-4.
Jared Allen reaches semifinal round for HOF
It's been a big week for Jared Allen. He attended Minnesota's win at Tennessee on Sunday, and on Wednesday was announced as one of 25 semifinalists for Pro Football Hall of Fame's Class of 2025.
Hall of Fame selectors will narrow that list to 15 modern-era finalists later this year.
