If you take a look at the four teams that just played in conference championship games, it's not hard to find their biggest common denominator – they all have great quarterbacks and productive passing offenses.
The quartet of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan now has seven Super Bowl titles, 12 Super Bowl appearances and 21 conference title game appearances, plus those quarterbacks combined for 126 more touchdowns than interceptions so far this season. Those are big-time numbers and they are the main reason their teams were still alive heading into the weekend.
But they're not the only reason. What are some of the other common denominators? Sacks? Third-down defense or offense? Pass defense? Nope. Those are all important, but they don't have the strongest correlation to postseason fortune – at least not this year. Only two of the 12 postseason teams had a top 10 pass defense or a top 10 3rd-down defense this season. Only three were top 10 in sacks and only four were top 10 in 3rd-down offense.
Taking the obvious (points allowed/scored) out of the equation, the best indicators of postseason success in 2016 aside from quarterback play had to do with turnovers and rushing offense.
Rushing Offense
Quarterbacks, more than any other position, are the driving force behind the success of their team. But that hasn't rendered the running game useless. Six of this year's 12 playoff teams had a top 10 rushing offense, making it a stronger correlation than passing offense (five) and 3rd-down offense (four). Atlanta and New England ranked third and fifth, respectively, in rushing touchdowns and fifth and seventh, respectively, in total rushing. Establishing a physical presence, controlling possession and being able to score touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone are products of a strong running game. Six of the NFL's 10 best red zone teams also had a top 10 rushing attack and six more ranked within the top 10 in time of possession.
Turnovers and Giveaways
Turnovers being an indicator of success is nothing new in the NFL and 2016 was no exception. Eight of the 12 playoff teams this year had a top 10 mark in turnover margin, including all four teams that played in conference championship games and six of the eight division winners. New England ( 12) and Atlanta ( 11) ranked third and fourth, respectively, in turnover margin. Digging one step deeper, though, it's limiting giveaways more than creating takeaways that makes a difference. Only two of the top 10 teams in takeaways made the playoffs, while seven of the 12 playoff teams, including three teams that played on Divisional weekend, ranked in the top 10 in fewest giveaways. Atlanta and New England were tied for the fewest giveaways in the NFL this season (11).
We can learn a lot from what we saw this past weekend and all throughout the playoffs about what it might take for the Vikings to make some noise next year. Top-notch quarterback play being important is an easy one, but it's interesting to look closer at the numbers to figure out some of the other important components – rushing offense, turnover margin and reducing giveaways took the cake this year. Don't be surprised if teams pay attention to these factors this offseason as they continue to build rosters that will compete for victories in 2017.
