Compatibility between players and strategy served Minnesota's offense extremely well in 2024.
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold reset every imaginable personal passing benchmark and won 14 games to supplant Randall Cunningham's 13 in 1998 for the most in a single regular season in franchise history.
Darnold's strong play helped push defenses on their heels and complemented career highs in carries and yards rushing for Aaron Jones, Sr. (255 attempts for 1,138 yards). It also was integral to Justin Jefferson's third season crossing the 1,500-yard threshold – amazingly, he needs one more to tie Jerry Rice for most all-time – and Jordan Addison's superb sophomore encore, in which he totaled 10 touchdowns, again.
In many facets, the latest iteration of the Vikings offense delivered the sharpest results yet on Head Coach Kevin O'Connell's watch. Firstly, and making good on an offseason focus, the unit trimmed its turnovers to 21 after barreling from 23 in 2022 to 34 in 2023. Also, it averaged slightly more yards per play (5.6 compared to 5.5 in 2022-23) and rescued its ground game from the brink of extinction, lifting its rushing yards per game from 27th in the NFL in 2022 (97.7) and 29th in 2023 (91.4), all the way up to 19th (109.1) this past season. Points per drive in 2024 (2.16) also bounced back (1.85 in '23 and 2.04 in '22).
View photos of Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell from the 2022-24 seasons.
It wasn't only rainbows and sunshine, of course.
The 2024 ensemble didn't convert as frequently on third or fourth downs, or in the red zone, as O'Connell's inaugural group in 2022. Actually, the '24 offense was outside the top 10 on third down (40%), ranked near the bottom of the league on fourth (46.2%), despite risking it on an NFL-low 13 plays, and got fatigued in the red zone, scoring six points on a bit more than half of its trips to the area (55.7%).
While we don't enjoy harping on the bad as much as appreciating the good, it's all consequential.
Now that the Pro Bowl Games are over and Super Bowl LIX is knocking, there's dwindling time to treasure 2024 royalties and too much time to dwell on 2024 flaws. So, we wanted to circle back to a collection of key offensive stats that were humongous to Minnesota's gradual rise and precipitous fall.
Editor's Note: The following statistics used in this article were obtained from NFL Next Gen Stats.
3 Favorable Offensive Stats:
1. Balanced attack
With some new personnel and an advanced philosophy, the 2024 Vikings wedded the run and pass.
Under O'Connell in 2022 and 2023, Minnesota sequenced up passes on 64.0 and 63.3 percent of its plays. In both instances, the offense's pass play frequency ranked third in the NFL – in 2022 behind the Buccaneers (66.7%) and Chargers (65.0%), and after Washington (66.1%) and Cincinnati (63.5%) in 2023.
The latest difference is positively shocking.
In '24, the Vikings tried to throw on 56.6% of their plays; that's a 6.7% decrease from the previous season, and definitely not third-most anymore – 15 clubs ended with a greater percentage of pass plays.
The team's quantum leap in rushing, progressing from running on 36.0% of its plays in 2022 to 36.7% in 2023 and 43.4% in 2024, netted Minnesota modest year-over-year change on the ground but sourced excellent results in the air. In 2024, the Vikings were fifth in passing TDs (35), sixth in passing yards per game (237.8), eighth in passing yards per play (6.8) and 10th in expected points added per throw (+0.04).
That success related to what O'Connell preached throughout the season: Ahem, rushing and throwing work in unison, and not every carry/catch is intended to be a big gainer or gasp generator. If a series of rushes to one side winds up enticing a linebacker to cheat downhill when he recognizes a certain alignment or block, then, eventually, a combination of routes with run action may breed opportunity. In turn, it's those maybe mundane, grind-it-out-type runs that are considered big wins since they formulate small advantages. Similarly, routine receptions capably draw out defenders to make room for key rushes.
The far-more-balanced attack helped Minnesota finish with an O'Connell-era best 25.4 points per game.
2. Play action success
Here's a good rule of thumb: "Don't fix what's not broken."
O'Connell's pass-heavy offenses in 2022-23 thrived on play-action concepts. So, like any smart operation, of course, the 2024 version doubled down on its strengths, and then reinforced and raised them a level.
Basically, the coupling of Darnold's able-to-cut-any-blade-of-grass-on-the-field arm with O'Connell's offensive vision – here we go, already recalling the significance of that run-pass marriage – motioned the Vikings into a fuller, more prolific stride in 2024 on passes involving a fake and longer-developing routes.
Overall on play-action calls, Minnesota was second in passing yards per play (9.2), third in TDs (13), fourth in passing yards per game (85.7) and 10th in expected points added per pass (+0.19). Each mark counted as the best in O'Connell's three seasons, and the EPA was a dramatic jump from +0.04 in '22-'23.
Individually, Darnold clipped 70.7% of passes that were accompanied by a fake handoff versus 64.6% of non-play-action attempts. His EPA on the former was +29.6. In 2023, Kirk Cousins compiled a play-action EPA of +0.9; he was far better in 2022 (+5.8), granted Darnold raised the Vikings system to a new height.
Like Jones instilling supplemental belief in the run game and causing defenses angst, Darnold strengthened Minnesota's play-action execution by playing off added respect toward that phase and trusting his arm talent, which was especially tantalizing on deep in-breakers and shots over the top.
This adage resonates, too: "Success is achieved by developing strengths, not by eliminating weaknesses."
3. Deep connections
Does it feel, yet, like offensive results in the run game, on play-action concepts, etc. are intertwined?
Wait, there's more: Darnold was white-hot on deep passes (balls traveling 20-plus yards in the air). He had an NFL-best 28 completions of that type due in part to outcomes tied snugly to the sections above.
Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold decorated his résumé with the top completion percentage (46.7%), the second-most yards per attempt (17.1) and No. 3 passer rating on deep throws (111.8) – only First-Team All-Pro and MVP favorite Lamar Jackson (125.2), and Justin Herbert (113.9) fared better. Also, Darnold had a league-leading EPA of +47.6; that's 12.3 points higher than Jackson, the No. 2 deep passer.
Darnold's finest display of letting it rip occurred in Week 14 against the Falcons, when Cousins reappeared at U.S. Bank Stadium for the first time since leaving in free agency. In that action, Darnold found glittering wideouts Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson for 49- and 52-yard touchdowns.
Speaking of "J.A." and "Jets", they're as responsible as anything else for Darnold's success passing deep.
Only five players had more deep receptions in 2024 than Jefferson, who matched his career low (!) and rookie tally of 11, but was aided in the master plan by Addison's 10. They finished as the third WR tandem in the past five seasons to boast, individually, at least 10 deep catches, joining Buffalo's Stefon Diggs (12) and Gabe Davis (10) in 2022, and Seattle's Tyler Lockett (13) and D.K. Metcalf (10) in 2019.
Addison and Jefferson averaged almost equal air yards per target on deep passes, at 29.7 and 29.6 yards, but the latter star had a greater catch rate (55.0% vs. 43.5%) and snagged more targets with a higher difficulty, as evidenced by his +10.1% catch rate over expected. Conversely, Addison's CROE was +1.0%.
The stats are indicative of scheme, no doubt, but they're also a testament to skillful ball tracking and finger catching, and a feisty play style that elevates the top Vikings pass-catchers from "good" to "great."
View the best photos of Vikings wide receivers during the 2024 season.
2 Improvable Offensive Stats:
1. Pressure rate
Darnold's 35 passing touchdowns put him a stone's throw away from Jared Goff (37) and not far from leaders Jackson (41), Baker Mayfield (41) and Joe Burrow (43) – additional proof Darnold was elite in '24.
His pressure rate, however, fixed his name to a faction that isn't quite in that upper echelon of passers.
Darnold was under pressure on 39.4 percent of dropacks in his seventh season and first in Minnesota. Only second-year QBs Will Levis (39.7%) and Anthony Richardson (40.8%) were more hamstrung by recurrent duress. In total, Darnold was pressured on 245 dropbacks – NGS defines a pressure as "any dropback where a defender gets within 2 yards of the QB at pass forward or within 1.5 yards of the QB at any point before the QB throws the ball" – which was second most to Bears rookie Caleb Williams (260).
The impetus of allowed pressure is complex and relates to a multitude of factors, such as play design, quickness going through progressions and stability along the offensive line. Sometimes, it's contingent on a defender's get-off or schematic advantage like an unaccounted pass rusher. But one cause was blatant as the year progressed: Darnold's time to throw was 3.08 seconds, more than a quarter of a second longer than NFL average (2.75) and notably longer than Cousins in 2022 (2.83) and 2023 (2.86).
View the best photos of Vikings offensive line during the 2024 season.
Darnold averaged 8.9 air yards per attempt (tied for fifth most in the NFL), meaning many routes required an extra tick and hitch in the pocket, although not ideally as long as he averaged. For comparison's sake, the two other players that lived above 3.00 seconds were Jackson and Jalen Hurts; they're both legitimate dual-threats and therefore habitual play extenders and on-the-move throwers.
Ultimately, Minnesota's saving grace might've been Darnold's understated ability to overcome pressure.
He twirled a league-high 1,279 yards in such situations; his 13 TDs under pressure tied Burrow for the NFL lead, and his 89.6 passer rating was sixth overall and comparable to Jackson's superior mark of 96.4.
For more clarity on Darnold's pressure-cooking antics, consider this list of QBs to toss 13 or more touchdowns against pressure since Darnold's rookie year: Patrick Mahomes tallied 16 in 2018; Josh Allen and Russell Wilson had 13 in 2020 when Justin Herbert ledgered 14, and Allen logged 13 again in 2022.
Six of Darnold's "under pressure" TDs were plays of 20-plus yards – Addison, Jefferson and Jalen Nailor hauled in two apiece. During both of the aforementioned bombs against Atlanta, Darnold was dialed, uncorking passes toward the right upfield numbers, with one from the pocket and one running laterally.
His athleticism on those snaps was witnessed over and over, and was crucial to him navigating pressure.
No matter, the heat proved too intense and Darnold too off-kilter in the season-salting losses to Detroit and Los Angeles. In those contests, Darnold was afflicted by pressure on 48.9% and 52.0% of dropbacks.
View the best photos of Vikings running backs Aaron Jones, Sr., Cam Akers, Ty Chandler, and fullback C.J. Ham during the 2024 season.
2. Explosive rushes
In 16 contests, Saquon Barkley spun, backwards-hurdled a man and gashed defenses for 46 runs of 10-plus yards. In 17 games, human locomotive Derrick Henry had 45, and lightning bolt Jahmyr Gibbs 41.
Obviously, they're the crème de la crème, the kind of dynamic runners and output offenses implore but rarely come by. Ripping off the Band-Aid here, Barkley almost outdid Minnesota's entire rushing attack!
Jones ranked 19th, trailing 16 running backs and two quarterbacks, with 25 rushes of 10-plus yards. Midseason addition Cam Akers contributed 12, while Darnold netted nine (14th among QBs) and Ty Chandler contributed three for a total of 49. It edged Barkley's one-man, cinematic production by three.
My oh my.
Was it an improvement from 2022-23? Yes to both, but by the smallest margin comparative to 2022 (48 – thanks largely to 30 via Dalvin Cook) and a more substantial one stacked against 2023 (38), which involved a neck-and-neck race between starting RB Alexander Mattison (17) and QB Joshua Dobbs (16).
It's hardly a secret that it's not enough.
To play off the "more passion, more energy, more footwork" TikTok dance, let's switchover to Vikings vernacular: The run game needs to bring more speed, more blocking, more yards after contact in 2025.
Jones was tracked at reaching 20 mph on a single rush in 2024. Same goes for Akers. Fifteen running backs had at least two. Furthermore, 15 backs were ahead of Jones in average yards after contact (3.4).
The slashing Jones ran with juice into his 30s, but a combination of expeditious meetings with defenders and a slower final burst than the game's top big-gain hunters, limited Minnesota's explosive rushing ops.
The offense's red-zone struggles hindered Jones, as well. He closed with the worst rushing yards over expected per attempt (-1.1) and Rush EPA (-19.6) in that part of the field. Truth is, it's potentially more a line problem than an individual fault, as Mattison ranked in the bottom three of both categories in 2023.
We repeat: More speed. More blocking. More yards after contact.